A two-horse race in the Tour de France is likely to be explosive

DM168 1 July 2023

By Craig Ray

2 Jul 2023

The recent death of Gino Mäder in the Tour de Suisse has reminded riders of the dangers of their sport, but they will still give it their all over three weeks.

The peloton for the 2023 Tour de France is primed for racing and three weeks of combat through French and Spanish valleys, mountains and plains.

But it’s also been reminded of its own fragility and the inherent dangers of the sport with the death of Gino Mäder in a tragic accident in the Tour de Suisse last month. The 26-year-old Bahrain Victorious rider went off the side of a mountain on the treacherous Albula Pass in the Alps.

He died in a hospital in Chur from his injuries, which sent shockwaves through the sport and brought safety questions to the fore.

There has been a call for downhill-skiing type netting to be placed at strategic points along mountain descents, and some have even called for speed limits on downhills.

But the latter proposal would rob the sport of a key skill – descending quickly – which is dangerous but also brilliant and an important way to make up time for riders who excel in that discipline.

One man who has faced death was the 2019 Tour de France and 2021 Giro d’Italia champion Egan Bernal. The Colombian Ineos Grenadiers rider hit a stationary bus on a training ride in January 2022 and according to doctors was “95% paralysed” in the days after the crash. Bernal suffered multiple broken bones, which he listed as 11 ribs, one femur, a kneecap, T5 and T6 vertebrae, C2 vertebrae, a metacarpal, and one broken thumb. He also lost a tooth.

Doctors feared he might never walk again, but he’s back on the Tour, although not a realistic contender this year.

Two-horse race

The race for the Maillot Jaune (yellow jersey) should come down to a battle between 2020 and 2021 winner Slovenian Tadej Pogačar and 2022 champion Jonas Vingegaard from Denmark.

The map of this year's Tour de France

The pair have a rivalry that is blossoming into one of cycling’s great duels. Vingegaard, who rides for Jumbo-Visma, has the stronger team behind him, including the brilliant Wout van Aert from Belgium.

Van Aert is the most complete rider in the peloton – he can climb, sprint and time trial – and this year his focus won’t be on the green jersey, for the most points. That usually goes to a sprinter.

Van Aert is targeting stage wins, especially in the first few days of the Tour through the hilly roads in Spain’s Basque country. It’s the perfect terrain for Van Aert and others such as Frenchman Julian Alaphilippe.

If Van Aert takes the yellow jersey in week one, it will be interesting to see how the dynamic plays out with Vingegaard, whom the former is supposed to protect in the high mountains.

Tour de France Danish rider Jonas Vingegaard's rivalry with Tadej Podacar is becoming one of the most greatest duels in cycling. (Photo: EPA/Martin Divisek)

The Pyrenees arrive early in this year’s Tour, the 110th time it is being held. Stage five is the first huge climb, although things really get serious on stage six – the Col d’Aspin and Col du Tourmalet passes.

Pogačar is also likely to attack in the early stages – not something that overall contenders for the title usually do in the first week. Although Pogačar is a throwback to the days of Eddy Merckx, who liked to attack his rivals on all terrain.

“Actually yes, I would expect him [Pogačar] to attack [early], a bit like last year,” Vingegaard told a news conference.

“I’ll just have to be ready for it. We will need to do our best and see what we can do.

“I don’t think it matters to say who is the big favourite – I can also say that he [Pogačar] is the big favourite,’’ he said.

“I only think about myself and preparing myself as good as possible. I think about what I can do to improve. In the last two months I’ve only been thinking about the training and being fully optimal for the Tour de France. As I said before, I think I am where I want to be and I’m happy with my shape.”

Is Pogačar fit?

One of the key questions this year is whether Pogačar is fully fit after breaking his wrist in multiple places in a crash in April.

Until then he was having a dominant season and after a six week lay-off he came back to win the Slovenian national time trial and road race last week.

“I’ve done some good training in the last two weeks,” he said at his pre-race press conference, “but I didn’t race. You normally do the Dauphine and/or Suisse before the Tour de France but I only did the Slovenian nationals. I think my legs are good, mentality I’m super good. I hope I’m ready.

“I think this first week will be really tough and explosive; you have everything and so it’ll be interesting. When I saw the route I was really excited but, after my injury, I’m a little bit unsure for the first week but I hope to have good legs.”

Last year, the Slovenian succumbed to the double attacks of Vingegaard and Primož Roglič on the road to the Col du Granon. It was an epic day of racing that has been dubbed the “stage of the century”.

Riding with the yellow jersey brings pressure every day to defend it. This year Pogačar jokingly said he might prefer to only take the jersey on stage 20, as he did in 2020 when he won the penultimate day’s time trial.

“It’s best to get it on stage 20, like three years [ago], so there’s the least pressure,” Pogačar joked about his sensational ride in the mountain time trial to La Planches des Belles Filles. “Of course, when there’s an opportunity in the Tour de France, you take it, but you need to hold your horses. This first week I’m sure we’ll see a lot of racing and for sure stage one is a chance for GC [general classification] riders to take yellow but then it’s a long way to keep it,” he said.

“Last year was a big experience for everybody and we will try to be better this year. Last year I was good enough to win but Jonas was stronger at certain points in the race so I will try to be careful this time. We will be trying to do our thing and win it,” he added. DM

This story first appeared in Daily Maverick's sister publication DM168, which is available countrywide for R29.

DM168 1 July 2023

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