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Unpacking five key trends, good and bad, that will shape South Africa in 2025

Steuart Pennington
By Steuart Pennington
11 Dec 2024
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These are trends that I have researched and investigated this year — some good, some better, and some bad.

Journalists will tell you the good news is often difficult to find because it is usually in the form of a trend that requires research and investigation. Bad news is easy to find because it is most often a dramatic event, in your face, downloadable and requires little investigation. Just listen, watch or read the news for proof of this. There are 5 trends that I have researched and investigated this year, some good, some better, and some bad. 

Poverty, unemployment and inequality — good story


Over the past 20 years South Africa has made considerable progress in the reduction of this worrying troika. I wrote to the Minister of Social Development, Sisisi Tolashe, and explained:

  • Government transfers have substantially reduced abject poverty, but not significantly moderate or relative poverty.

  • Formal housing numbers have increased.

  • Home ownership has grown.

  • Income and wealth inequality has declined, the SA Gini coefficient (which shows how equally income is distributed in a population) is outdated and inaccurate.

  • Real unemployment, citizens who don’t have any work is at about 15% and not 32.9% as StatsSA reports, the difference being “official” versus “unofficial” numbers.


Readers may not agree with the Budget, the sustainability and the wisdom of our social grant/government transfers system (another debate), but the fact is that abject poverty has been substantially reduced. The World Bank figures take no account of the “value” of such transfers and therefore can be questioned in terms of their veracity. 

The NHI and healthcare in SA – bad story


Over the past 20 years the state of our healthcare has declined dramatically. National Health Insurance (NHI) will not change this, it will only worsen it. I wrote to the Minister of Health Aaron Motsoaledi and explained:

  • 45% of our 3479 clinics are either dysfunctional or under-resourced.

  • 60% of our 394 hospitals are either dysfunctional or under-resourced.

  • We have 18 Open Medical Aid schemes in South Africa (can be joined by anybody) and 58 Restricted (for specific employer groups) with a total of 9,699,000 members, 16% of the population comprising (using 2022 figures) 5,100,000 black members; 486,000 coloured members; 744,000 Indian/Asian members; 3,369,000 white members.

  • We have 200 “private” hospitals in South Africa owned by Netcare, Medi-Clinic and Life Healthcare, which service these medical schemes.


The grand plan of NHI is to close down “private” medical aid schemes and private hospitals.

My view is that the NHI is another government example of outdated socialist logic, the reader need look no further than the debacle that has unfolded with the UK and its National Health Service. The issue is not as much about cost as it is about private initiative, service, professionalism, quality and, yes, competition — all of which have gone backwards with the National Health Service — let alone the feeding trough opportunity in South Africa. Just imagine if the same was tried with education.

Sport and Olympic prowess — bad story  


Of 205 participating nations, 89 won medals. South Africa ranked 42nd overall, in the top 50% of medal winners, and in the top 25% of participating countries. Good story? No. I wrote to the Minister of Sports, Arts and Culture, Gayton McKenzie, and explained:

  • In medals per capita we rank 71st out of the 89 countries, in the bottom 20%.

  • Government spending policy on sport is incoherent and often unsupportive of some sporting disciplines.

  • A total of 9,735 out of 22,587 public schools have no sporting facilities at all, or 43%.

  • Only approximately 7,250 schools offer four or more sporting disciplines.

  • Our school-going population is 12,684,886 learners, which means that statistically 5,454,500 children in our schools have no access to sporting facilities at all.

  • We have little in the way of talent scouting, sporting academies and high performance centres.


Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus’s innovations in rugby in finding talent, giving them opportunity, and finding coaches and giving them opportunity shows that in just 13 years a sport can be completely transformed to what he calls “the new normal” — using merit alone. Minister McKenzie must get close to this example. 

Business and politics – better story 


The cocktail of the Government of National Unity (GNU), adding a business pledge mixer, informal sector fruit and a civil society straw is beginning to taste better. John Endres, CEO of the Institute of Race Relations, inspired my article.

The four legs of South Afria's future are:



  • Leg 1: The changing role of the state; Coalition governments, local, provincial and national and the GNU — better prospects for investment.

  • Leg 2: Private sector initiative through B4SA, working with the government — considerable rebuilding.

  • Leg 3: Civil society oversight and contribution through 250,000 registered NGO’s — assisting where the government is failing.

  • Leg 4: A vigorous informal sector contributing R1-trillion to gross domestic product (GDP) and engaging eight million citizens — reducing real unemployment.


This represents the way forward, not a jumble of scenarios, we are on the road to an improved future. 

International and local investment – better story


 I have used JP Landman’s extensive piece of investigative reporting here. 

  • In 2023 total investment in the country amounted to just over R1-trillion. Total GDP was just over R7-trillion, which means investment came to 15% of GDP.

  • It is below the 25% National Development Plan’s ambition but still an enormous number. It comes to R114-million per hour, every hour of each of the 365 days of the year!

  • Traditionally, fixed investment in South Africa comprised about two-thirds from the private sector and one-third from the public sector. In recent years, the public sector share has declined, and the private sector share has increased. By 2023, the numbers came to 71% and 29%, respectively. The private sector is becoming ever more important.

  • A total of R943.8-billion is budgeted for public-sector infrastructure spending over the three years from 2024 to 2027.

  • The trick in making South Africa one big construction site requires that investment in both the public and private sectors must increase from 4% to 10% of GDP to 10% and 15%, respectively.

  • Since 2018, the political climate on public-private partnerships and using private capital in the public space has changed significantly. There is a greater willingness to blend public and private money for infrastructure.

  • More stringent project requirements and the use of more private capital will simultaneously improve the quality of spend and increase the pot of money.

  • As for the private sector, all confidence metrics have improved since the formation of the GNU; and confidence is the foundation of private sector investment.

  • Of course, all this may become unstuck due to global events (e.g. Ukraine, Middle East, Trump) but that is beyond our control. Let’s focus on what we can control.


These five trends are worth watching, they will, to an extent, inform our future. 

Personally though, I will be watching what our new Minister of Basic Education, Siviwe Gwarube, does to reform education in this country, provided she survives the Bela Bill challenge. 

Real freedom and the opportunity to realise the potential of a country’s human capital are founded upon equal access to quality education. Without that the troika of poverty, inequality and unemployment will persist, no matter the extent of government transfers. DM

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