Unpacking the polls: DA consistent, MK party not so much

Political parties campaigned during the municipal by elections on 11 September 2024 in Lenasia Gauteng. (Photo: Gallo Images / Fani Mahuntsi)

By Suné Payne

12 Sep 2024

The DA had strong by-elections on Wednesday while the PA reported gains in predominantly black areas. The MK party won another ward, but there’s a question over the party’s consistency, said elections analyst Wayne Sussman.

Al Jama-ah and the Democratic Alliance (DA) had great by-elections on Wednesday, 11 September 2024, said independent elections analyst Wayne Sussman. Other parties such as the African National Congress (ANC), Patriotic Alliance (PA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) could also be proud of their showing.

Sussman spoke to Daily Maverick after Wednesday’s by-elections, which took place in 23 wards in six provinces. In total, the DA retained 16 seats, the ANC four. Al Jama-Ah and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) retained a seat each and the uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party won a seat.

Read Sussman’s breakdown of the by-elections:

MK party wins KZN ward but falls short in other contests, dominant DA paints polls blue

Al-Jamah wins big in Lenasia while ANC and DA also retain seats in Gauteng and Limpopo

DA retains electoral mining rights in Odendaalsrus, adds to huge Free State haul with easy Mangaung wins

DA sails forth in North West ward polls, despite prod by EFF in Potch

The DA

The DA had a big night across the country, where the party defended and retained the majority of available seats.

According to Sussman, there were only two results the DA might not have been happy with. In 2021, it won 14% in the City of Johannesburg’s Ward 9, which Al Jama-ah won, and took 14% on Wednesday. In Ward 22 in North West’s Kenneth Kuanda region, the party declined from 69% in 2021 to 59%.

polls da by-elections Political parties campaign during the municipal by-elections on 11 September 2024 in Lenasia, Gauteng. (Photo: Gallo Images / Fani Mahuntsi)

The DA had significant success in suburban areas, such as in KwaZulu-Natal. Sussman said parties such as Action SA (which did not contest these by-elections) could have challenged the DA, but the party “had a great night here”.

“I think the DA, through these results, is trying to consolidate suburban voters behind it… They could have lost two wards… They strengthened their position in both of those wards and it was a very good night for them,” he said.

Al Jama-ah

Al Jama-ah, which has played a key role in the City of Johannesburg since the 2021 elections, with two mayors from the party, now given the boot, retained its only ward seat in the country, the city’s Ward 9 (Lenasia). The party received 60% of the vote in comparison to the 49% it received in 2021.

The support showed that the party’s popularity continued, even after its councillor Imraan Moosa resigned to take up a seat in Parliament.

“I think a lot of their success in the ward was because of him,” said Sussman.

The party, Sussman said, was “far better” at receiving votes in Lenasia than in the 2024 general elections at the national level. Sussman said the question for the party was whether it could replicate this in other communities.

MK’s consistency question

The uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party won its third ward since its formation in 2023, winning 51% of the votes in Ward 4 in Ray Nkonyeni Municipality in KwaZulu-Natal. The ANC won the seat in 2021 with 76% of the vote.

Sussman said the win was “an achievement. It’s not often that new parties win wards so quickly.”

At the same time, the party could have won two more wards in KwaZulu-Natal on Wednesday — Ward 24 in Ray Nkonyeni and Ward 4 in Mpofana Municipality, judging by the votes it received in the 2024 general elections.

Sussman said the results were “quite amazing” – areas where the MK party won support in the national elections backed the ANC and IFP on Wednesday.

He said that while the MK party would celebrate its ward win, “deep down inside, surely they would have expected to win at least two other wards”.

Sussman said the party faced a question over its momentum.

“We are not seeing that in uMkhonto Wesizwe… They won a by-election a few weekends ago in a Setswana-speaking area in Rustenburg. That didn’t translate to Setswana-speaking voters in Soweto and Kagiso on the West Rand voting for them in a by-election last night.”

“So that, for me, remains a million-dollar question about MK and its inconsistent performances.”

PA, ANC and EFF

Sussman said parties such as the EFF, PA and ANC should be happy with their results.

On the ANC, he said its small upticks of support in Soweto and Kagiso were good for the party after the ANC lost support among black voters in Gauteng in the 2024 elections.

“For the party to do better in a by-election in Kagiso than they did a few months ago, and 2021, and for the parties to do better in Soweto than they did a few months ago, and in 2021, that’s an encouraging sign.”

In the Kagiso by-election in Mogale City, the ANC won 61% of the vote. In the 2021 municipal elections, the party received 59% of the votes there.

In the Soweto ward up for grabs, the ANC won 59% of the proportional representation vote compared with 49% in 2021.

“Are we starting to see black voters in Gauteng move back to the ANC? If that’s the case, that’s very good news for the ANC,” said Sussman.

Another party that did well among black Gauteng voters was the PA.

“The PA by the way, had a very strong night in black townships, which is relatively new ground for them,” said Sussman.

In a ward in Soweto, the party received 17%, an increase from 1% in the previous local government elections. In the Kagiso by-election, the party placed third with 9% of the votes.

“That was a surprise to me and encouraging for the PA,” said Sussman.

When it came to the EFF, a party which has made headlines after a public split with its former deputy president Floyd Shivambu, Sussman said it had two “encouraging results” in Potchefstroom.

The party came second in Ward 22, receiving 37% of votes compared with 3% in 2021. This ward, Sussman said, has many students whom the EFF is known to attract.

“However, in the Gauteng townships, the EFF declined and this should worry the EFF,” he said.

FF Plus and ActionSA missing from the ballots

The Freedom Front Plus and ActionSA did not contest the by-elections in several wards.

“It says that these parties are possibly reflecting on what didn’t go well in the national elections,” said Sussman, saying they might be questioning “what went right and which by-elections they’re gonna contest going forward”.

These parties’ absence could mask that they are likely to take votes from the DA in some areas, particularly where they did well in the 2021 municipal elections.

“I’m sure these results will encourage the activists from the DA to work even harder,” said Sussman.

The next round of by-elections is in October in the Eastern Cape and Northern Cape. DM

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