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URC playoffs loom: Leinster's dominance sparks hope for South African contenders

URC playoffs loom: Leinster's dominance sparks hope for South African contenders
Jon Cardinelli
By Jon Cardinelli
17 Apr 2025
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The teams will secure home advantage for the United Rugby Championship quarterfinals — and do the Lions and Stormers a favour — if they achieve two wins on their respective tours of Europe.

The European Champions Cup quarterfinal showdown between Leinster and the Glasgow Warriors last week was billed as a dress rehearsal for the United Rugby Championship (URC) final.

Leinster now sit at the top of the URC table and Glasgow are in second place. Both have been widely tipped to feature in the decider on 14 June.

If all predictions come to pass, neutrals will hope for a more competitive contest, given that the recent clash in Dublin ended in a 52-0 triumph for Jacques Nienaber’s Irish charges.

URC door open for SA contenders


It’s possible that Leinster will finish the season with both trophies.

Toulouse captain Antoine Dupont has been sidelined with an injury, and the reigning champions may miss the inspirational scrumhalf in the latter stages of the Champions Cup. As a result, Leinster may end a title drought that stretches back to 2018.

Closer to home, the South African franchises — which have been knocked out of the European tournaments and will focus solely on the URC for the remainder of the season — will hope that Leinster’s obsession with the Champions Cup continues to leave the door open for other teams to win the URC.

Over the past three years, Leinster have lost three consecutive Champions Cup finals and, in the wake of each defeat in Europe, have failed to progress beyond the URC semifinals.

Leinster remain an industry leader in so many respects, but as the record reflects, they are more vulnerable in the URC than they are in the Champions Cup.

Jousting for third place


The South African contenders will keep the above in mind. The Bulls (third in the URC standings) and Sharks (fourth) are on track to qualify for the play-offs. Their results over the last four league games will determine whether they host a quarterfinal or travel — possibly overseas — for the first round of the knockouts.

The Bulls will start a four-game stretch with a two-match tour of Europe. Jake White’s charges have been on the road for two weeks already, delivering mixed showings in Bayonne and Edinburgh.

After their Challenge Cup quarterfinal defeat in the Scottish capital Edinburgh, the Bulls face a tough assignment against Munster (fifth in the standings) this weekend, before a visit to reigning champions Glasgow.

If the Bulls don’t accumulate sufficient log points from these matches, they may fall down the standings, and potentially relinquish the opportunity to host a play-off.

The latter seems unlikely, given that they will finish their league campaign with home matches against Cardiff (who were recently placed in administration) and the basement-dwelling Dragons.

But there is another reason they should be gunning for a third-place finish.

Although there’s no guarantee that Leinster will win the URC title, they are well placed to finish first and secure home advantage for the play-offs. In this scenario, one would expect them to win their quarterfinal against the eighth-placed team (Edinburgh at this stage, but the Lions could claim this slot if results go their way).

The Irish side would then host the lowest-ranked qualifier in the semis, which is likely to be the Bulls or the Sharks.

It’s worth noting that although Leinster have been knocked out three times in the play-offs, their semifinal opponents have gone on to claim the URC title on just one occasion (Munster in 2023).

This is something all contenders will keep in mind. Although Leinster will be more vulnerable in this tournament, a visit to Dublin remains a daunting prospect and tends to take its toll on touring teams, regardless of the result.

Sharks could overtake Bulls


The Bulls have been South Africa’s best-performing team this season, but the Sharks could overtake White’s side in the URC standings over the next four weeks.

The Sharks have had an extra week to prepare for the tour fixtures against Edinburgh and Ulster, and their schedule is far less daunting than that of the Bulls.

If they win one or two of those matches abroad, they will be well placed before the home fixtures against the Ospreys and Scarlets.

If Leinster, Glasgow, the Sharks and Bulls finish the league phase in that order, it’s likely that they will win their respective quarterfinals — and that the Bulls will travel to Dublin to face Leinster.

The Bulls have Leinster’s number, having beaten them in two URC semifinals to date, and might fancy a shot at a hat-trick.

Whether they have what it takes to win a subsequent final in Glasgow, or secure a victory at the Shark Tank after another long-haul flight, remains to be seen.

How the other SA teams could benefit


The race for play-off positions is especially tight this season with only nine points separating eighth-placed Edinburgh and 15th-placed Zebre Parma.

The Lions (14th in the standings) and Stormers (10th) find themselves in a do-or-die situation, needing victories from their remaining four matches to qualify for the play-offs.

Although the Lions and Stormers can’t afford to look beyond their respective quests for maximum points in the coming weeks, they certainly could do with a little help from their South African counterparts.

Wins for the Bulls against Munster and Cardiff would boost their stragglers’ qualification cause, as would victories for the Sharks over Edinburgh, Ulster, the Ospreys and Scarlets.

A string of positive results seems unlikely, given the inconsistency of these teams over the course of the season.

But if the South African sides combine for enough wins and points in the last four rounds, all four franchises will advance to the play-offs for the first time in history.

And in that event, the chances of a South African team lifting the URC trophy will increase significantly. DM

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R35.

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