With four weeks to go, Kamala Harris leads US polls while Elon Musk goes Dark MAGA for Trump

6 Oct 2024

While some strange, even bizarre, twists have been occurring with amazing frequency in this presidential campaign, it should also be remembered that the electoral fate of the Congress is also at stake, along with referendums in about 10 states over women’s reproductive rights, and elections for large numbers of mayors, governors, state legislators and local officials as well.

On that question of abortion rights, Melania Trump, in her new memoir, has come out fully supportive of women’s reproductive rights – very different from the various positions her husband has taken. Will this help or hurt him with voters? Who knows…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUz2stmKQ08

Of course, most of the attention from outside the US is naturally focused on the presidential outcome. Within the country, however, many voters are also paying particular attention to more local races and those referendums on their ballots in their respective states – in addition to the presidential race.

For example, the Senate seat now held by Democrat Jon Tester in Montana is being fiercely contested. If Democrats lose this race – or one or two other possible seats such as the contest between Larry Hogan and Angela Alsobrooks in Maryland – they would lose control of that half of the Congress, even if they pull out a victory in the presidential race.

Harris edging ahead

In the presidential race, the most recent polling, according to the Washington Times and similarly reported by many other media channels, “Vice-President Kamala Harris gained a 2-point edge over former president Donald Trump in a new national poll. The survey from NPR, PBS News and Marist found that Ms Harris leads Mr Trump 50% to 48% nationally, though her slim advantage is within the poll’s margin for error.”

This usually means a poll such as this one is said to be accurate at the 95% level of reliability and within a couple of percentage points to either side of the announced levels of support.

“Ms Harris is underperforming among independent voters, however, trailing Mr Trump by 4 points. President Biden carried independent voters by 13 points in 2020.”

The report went on to note, significantly, that the “Marist’s poll, released Thursday, showed that the gender gap of support for the candidates is wide. Men overwhelmingly support Mr Trump 57%-41%. Conversely, Ms Harris has an 18-point lead with women.”

This is largely attributable to the salience of the respective candidates’ positions on women’s reproductive rights.

“‘With the campaigns in high gear, no one has closed the sale,’ Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said. ‘Under the hood, the gender gap continues to widen and, at this rate, the gender gap in this year’s election results will likely outpace what it has been historically.’”

Potentially important for the efforts of the Democratic Party candidate (and incumbent President Joe Biden’s), the report added: “Previous polling found that the economy was the No 1 concern among voters, particularly in swing states. But Marist’s poll found that preserving democracy is the top issue for voters nationally, 64%, followed by the economy, 59%, and immigration, 44%.”

This shift may be indicative that the message Democrats have been hammering at for months – that this election is about the preservation of democracy – is actually beginning to capture the attention of voters. It may also reflect the increasing recognition of current economic circumstances as opposed to memories of the Covid pandemic and the subsequent supply chain disruptions.

Betting on immigration

Meanwhile, Republican candidates Trump and JD Vance increasingly seem to be placing their bets on still-potent fears by many about immigrants taking jobs, carrying out campaigns of drug dealing, murder and rapine, illegally scoring housing and federal aid funding, and directly causing inflation and climate change (okay, not that very last one, at least, not yet).

This could be seen in Trump’s bizarre statements in his earlier debate with Democratic nominee Harris about Haitian legal immigrants putting stolen kittens and puppies into their soup pots in a small city in Ohio.

Read more: Kamala Harris cleans Donald Trump’s clock in American presidential candidates debate — no debate about it

But then there was also vice-presidential nominee Vance’s performance in his recent debate with Democratic vice-presidential nominee Tim Walz, in which he attempted to tie the rises in home prices and rental costs to an exaggerated, imaginary number of 25 million illegal immigrants. This charge continues to be refuted by economists who note illegal immigrants are extremely unlikely to be applying for home loans to buy McMansions or attempting to rent upmarket apartments in “hot” neighbourhoods.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WbKF3Qt9hg&pp=ygUYdmFuY2UgdiB3YWx6IGRlYmF0ZSBmdWxs

In his most recent, duplicitous outbursts, Trump has been telling voters that emergency government funding to address the circumstances of victims from Hurricane Helene is unavailable because the Biden administration spent the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s money on illegal immigrants. While this is not true of the current administration, it actually was true in the Trump presidency, when FEMA funds were diverted to pay for the roundups and incarceration of immigrants.

Over the past weekend, Trump went back to Butler, Pennsylvania – the site of the rally where there had been that attempt on his life that winged his ear – to continue his interrupted rally. This time, his event featured his new acolyte, Elon Musk, who gave a demonstration of jumping jacks and wore a black MAGA hat, while cheering for his chosen candidate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Asoq00GQ3BA&pp=ygUKdHJ1bXAgbWFzaw%3D%3D

Targeting swing states

Meanwhile, Harris has been trying to lock down wavering support from some would-be backers in the all-important swing states. This has included a meeting with representatives of the Muslim and Arab-American voters in Michigan, many of whom remain wary of the incumbent Democratic president’s policies on the Middle East. Such voters may be a crucial part of the electorate in that state.

Harris continues to gather endorsements from many dozens of Republican worthies, including former congresswoman Liz Cheney. Cheney appeared with Harris at an event to visibly demonstrate her support – and her apostasy, according to Trump campaign spokespersons.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=orXSVEExOKc&pp=ygUabGl6IGNoZW5leSBlbmRvcnNlZCBrYW1hbGE%3D

The former Wyoming representative had been the third-ranking Republican member of Congress until she dared serve on the special congressional committee investigating the 6 January 2021 insurrection attempting to seize the Capitol Building and preventing the vice-president’s certification of Biden’s election as president. Just incidentally, the special prosecutor’s new version of his brief about the then-president’s role has been released and the case may be inching forward again.

Fundraising

Of course, all of these campaign efforts cost money – and tonnes of it. Here, Harris’s candidacy has a clear advantage. The Economist noted that as of 31 August, Harris has gathered nearly a billion dollars in direct campaign contributions, plus contributions to allied groups such as PACs (political action committees), compared with Trump’s close to $700-million.

As Willie Brown, the former San Francisco mayor and former California state speaker of the house, memorably reminded us, “Money is the mother’s milk of politics”. That is true, but it doesn’t guarantee outcomes.

Now that the debates are history, and with only weeks before the election, voters will see the presidential and vice-presidential candidates increasingly on their favourite electronic media shows, including such interesting spots as Walz on Fox News and Harris on The View and 60 Minutes. On the latter, the show’s producers wanted both presidential candidates to appear, but, since Trump declined, Harris will have the time to herself.

It is also important to remember that an increasing number of voters in many states are already voting in advance by mail. As of last week, 1,139,000 people had already done so. Decisions by millions more voters soon may be baked into the results as well, although such votes will not be counted until election day.

This election may go down to the wire – and with the nearly inevitable challenges to the results. DM

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Politics

Harris edging ahead

Betting on immigration

Targeting swing states

Fundraising