seeing orange
By Yeshiel Panchia
seeing orange
By Yeshiel Panchia
US tariff uncertainty casts shadow over South Africa’s citrus lifeline
Across the country’s three citrus strongholds — Limpopo (40% of production), Eastern Cape (25%), and the Western Cape (15%) — the impact of the tariff is already being felt. Fertiliser purchases are being delayed, pruning schedules deferred, and replanting plans shelved. Seasonal workers, particularly those involved in harvesting and packing, face an uncertain future.
In the crisp predawn light of Citrusdal, Western Cape, a crate of waxed Valencia oranges is hoisted into a refrigerated truck bound for Durban. It’s a ritual as familiar as the harvest itself. But this year, the road ahead is lined with uncertainty.
On Wednesday, 9 April 2025, US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on the implementation of sweeping new tariffs — including a proposed 30% duty on South African citrus. While the move has temporarily calmed markets, it has left farmers and exporters in limbo, planning a season around a threat that could return at short notice.
South Africa is the world’s second-largest citrus exporter, and for decades the United States has been a premium destination for its fruit. The US summer provides a rare window where southern hemisphere oranges, mandarins, and lemons dominate retail shelves. In 2024 alone, South Africa shipped nearly 100,000 tons of citrus to the US, accounting for about 5 to 6% of the country’s total citrus output. That flow generated more than $100-million (R1.9-billion) in export earnings and supported more than 35,000 direct and indirect jobs across the value chain.
The new tariff regime — a 10% baseline on all imports, plus an estimated 20% punitive measure, bringing the total duty to around 30% — upends a long-standing arrangement under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa). Where South African citrus once enjoyed duty-free access to US shelves, it must now clear a cost barrier of approximately $6,000 (R116,000) per container.
According to the Citrus Growers Association of Southern Africa, this equates to about $4.50 (R87) per carton — a cost that not only erodes margins but calls into question the viability of the entire trade route.
Across the country’s three citrus strongholds — Limpopo (40% of production), Eastern Cape (25%), and the Western Cape (15%) — the impact of the tariff is already being felt. Fertiliser purchases are being delayed, pruning schedules deferred, and replanting plans shelved. Seasonal workers, particularly those involved in harvesting and packing, face an uncertain future.
Orchard to employment engine
South Africa’s citrus industry is a critical employer in rural areas with high unemployment. Of the 35,000 jobs linked to the US citrus export market, an estimated 20,000 are seasonal farm workers, 6,000 are employed in packhouses and logistics operations, and roughly 2,000 more work in ports and cold chain logistics. A further 7,000 depend on the sector informally, from local transport services to township retail tied to seasonal cash flows.
In Citrusdal and Patensie, reports point to shortening shifts, fewer weekend hours, and the postponement of annual bonuses. In some cases, cooperatives are asking employees to take voluntary unpaid leave to match lower shipment volumes. The Food and Allied Workers Union (Fawu) has called for urgent government support and warned that inaction could lead to unrest in vulnerable citrus-growing communities.
Bottlenecked at the packhouse
Once picked, fruit is rushed to high-tech packhouses where it is sorted, washed, waxed, and graded for export. These facilities are capital-intensive operations that rely on imported machinery and meticulous compliance with international food safety standards.
A key requirement for citrus destined for the US is the cold treatment protocol, enforced to prevent the spread of the false codling moth. This process involves chilling fruit to lower than 2°C for 22 days in a carefully monitored cold chain. Any deviation renders the shipment non-compliant.
According to the Citrus Growers Association of Southern Africa, the per-carton tariff cost now rivals the entire cost of packaging and freight. This has left exporters with a grim calculus: cut quality, delay investment, or exit the market. Some logistics managers report shelving equipment upgrades in favour of operational survival.
Cold chain under strain
Transporting citrus from inland packhouses to the ports of Durban, Gqeberha, or Cape Town is an 800km marathon across underfunded road infrastructure and rising fuel prices. The industry relies on refrigerated trucks and rail containers — reefers — to preserve cold treatment integrity.
The Citrus Growers Association of Southern Africa’s Logistics Forum estimates that 95% of exports move in refrigerated containers, each requiring plug-point capacity at terminals. Any dip in volume due to tariffs increases the per-unit logistics cost, as trucks and reefers run below optimal capacity.
DP World’s recent investment in Maputo has opened up a fourth export corridor via rail. While promising, it is not yet sufficient to absorb large-scale re-routing. Meanwhile, port delays in Cape Town, now ranked 405th out of 405 ports globally by the World Bank’s Container Port Performance Index 2023, add to the logistical uncertainty. Reefer plug-point capacity is nearing saturation in Durban, while labour shortages and port congestion plague Gqeberha and Ngqura.
In response to detailed questions from Daily Maverick, DP World responded: “Unfortunately, we are unable to comment on the impact of US tariffs on South African industry right now.”
They were not alone — when we started working on this story, Trump’s tariffs pause announcement had not yet been made. Post the pause announcement, multiple requests for comment were met with a similar, yet significant response, including this from the Department of Trade, Industry and Commerce:
“We are not at a stage to respond to these questions as… we are working internally to produce the work. We would like to be given enough time (and) we will revert and take South Africa into confidence with our final product,” said the department spokesperson in response to Daily Maverick’s queries.
Exporters warn that even minor power cuts, truck breakdowns, or port delays can disrupt the cold treatment protocol and lead to US shipment rejections — further amplifying financial risk.
Shaky sea legs and sinking margins
Citrus bound for the US typically travels from Durban or Cape Town to Philadelphia, Newark, or Houston. These voyages are timed to meet the cold treatment requirements en route. But under the new tariff regime, that voyage has become prohibitively expensive.
Importers and exporters are scrambling to renegotiate contracts. Some shipments have already been cancelled. For a container of fruit worth $20,000 (R385,000), the $6,000 (R116,000) tariff wipes out most of the margin. Comparatively, competitors like Chile, Brazil, and Morocco face only the baseline 10% tariff, further undermining South Africa’s position.
Export volumes to the US are expected to contract, and with them the entire architecture of forward bookings, container slots, and shipping frequency.
This has a knock-on effect across the supply chain — from trucking firms to cold store operators to port revenue. US importers, particularly those invested in the “Summer Citrus from South Africa” programme, have raised concerns with the US, citing potential supply shortages and higher consumer prices.
Pause, not pivot
On Wednesday, 9 April, Trump announced a 90-day pause on new tariff hikes, momentarily halting the proposed 30% duty on South African citrus. The move steadied markets — but for farmers and exporters it offers little certainty.
Trump’s 90-day freeze on new tariffs halts the implementation of a proposed 30% duty on South African citrus — but only temporarily. The 10% blanket import tariff remains in place. Exporters must plan as though the 30% tariff may return at any time, eroding price certainty and complicating contractual logistics.
Analysts remain divided on whether the pause reflects a calculated rebalancing of trade priorities or a reaction to bond market panic.
“It’s a short-term reprieve, not a structural shift,” said economist Daniel Silke. “The volatility remains baked in.”
Citrus exporters are caught in limbo — forced to plan for contingencies while waiting to see whether this pause becomes policy, or simply a brief breath before escalation.
The death of Agoa?
The citrus sector is not standing still. Exporters are pivoting toward growth markets in India, the UAE, and Southeast Asia. DP World’s Maputo rail corridor is seen as a strategic pressure valve, although volumes remain modest for now.
Packhouses are exploring value-add processing: converting surplus fruit into juice, pectin, or essential oils. But these markets do not match the returns of fresh exports. While the US market represents just 5 to 6% of volume, it accounts for a disproportionately high share of profits due to premium pricing.
Industry leaders argue that the path forward lies in market predictability and long-term relationships. Retaining access — even at reduced volume — may preserve partnerships and positioning until the political environment stabilises.
Seeing orange
This is more than a seasonal setback. It is a real-time stress test of South Africa’s position in the global trade system. As a mid-sized exporter dependent on a few preferential access routes, the country is deeply exposed to shifts in global policy mood.
The Agoa crisis arrives as global trade itself is undergoing transformation: toward friend-shoring, regionalisation, and politicised supply chains. In that environment, technical compliance and product quality are no longer enough.
Technical excellence no longer guarantees market access. In a shifting geopolitical climate, even the best fruit may be stranded by policy.
A bitter fruit to swallow
The journey of a South African orange once ended in a US supermarket fruit aisle. Now, it risks ending in cold storage or a processing plant, crushed not by pests or drought, but by the volatility of global politics. Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs offers fleeting relief — not reversal — and underscores just how exposed South Africa is to the mood swings of a transactional trade agenda.
For farmers in Citrusdal, packhouse workers in Kirkwood, and dockside crews in Gqeberha, the cost is counted in jobs, cancelled orders, and a sense that once again, global trade rules are being rewritten far from their fields.
As the 2025 citrus season unfolds under these shadowed skies, one thing is clear: a 12,000km journey, touching five borders and thirty hands from harvest to US food aisle, has never been more politically charged — or economically fragile. DM