VAT deal means GNU stays — just in time as new survey shows South Africans are gatvol of the drama

This is good news as the latest and largest political opinion survey released this month shows that South Africans are losing patience with the Government of National Unity (GNU), though it is not yet a year old.





A large Ipsos Governance Barometer for the Inclusive Society Institute’s GovDem poll shows that its prospects have dimmed in the public mind. Because people are not feeling tangible benefits from the GNU, this consensus of the centre (a pact led by major parties) is fraying. This is a shift, as people have until recently been upbeat about the GNU, which is led by the ANC and includes the DA and eight other smaller parties. 

While the idea of power sharing is a net positive with South Africans, the GNU’s regular squabbles and skirmishes are costing it, as is its inability to turn positive perception into lived reality.

While growth prospects were good at the start of the year, the trend is now downward, and unemployment has emerged again as the top issue for voters in three different polls recently. Fewer than 40% of those surveyed by Ipsos trust the GNU will improve their lives.

This is because the GNU is now characterised not by progress but by problems. The jury is still out on whether it will survive as talks hit deadlock and stasis — 40% of those surveyed did not think the unity government would survive. But 35% strongly disagreed that it would fall apart, suggesting that it could be put back on track with political will.

News broke on 24 April 2025 that the DA could settle its case in court against Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana to secure an order to stop him from implementing a 0.5 percentage point VAT increase. DA federal council chairperson Helen Zille said in a late X post that the party’s lawyers had been approached by the National Treasury’s team to settle.

Read more: DA claims win in Treasury VAT U-turn, says ANC ‘deception happens repeatedly’ in GNU

“The findings show widespread scepticism among South Africans on whether the different parties can effectively work together within the GNU. Overall, just four in every 10 (or 42%) of adult South Africans expressed a positive view of the current state of cooperation among the different parties forming the GNU, whereas half (50%) held negative views,” the pollsters said.

“Supporters of the two largest parties — the ANC and DA — expressed similar levels of sentiment, with nearly half expressing positive views about cooperation.”

Supporters of smaller parties in the GNU, like the FF+ and IFP, have a bleaker outlook, with the majority saying the parties were not working well together.

The GNU’s failure to cohere and build on the can-do momentum at its moment of formation has been exacerbated by at least 10 subsequent crises that continually keep the polity on the brink.

A tally kept by Daily Maverick shows the parties are miles apart not only on VAT, but on significant areas of policy, including basic education, land, health and international policy. The DA is in court against the government of which it is part in four different cases, including the Basic Education Laws Act (Bela), the Expropriation Act, the National Health Insurance Act and the implementation of the 0.5% VAT increase on May 1.  The parties appear to have pulled back from the brink, but establishing a GNU of progress is now urgent, the survey shows.

There is consensus that jobs and growth are the two main needs for the country and its people. With the pace set by the Presidency and the reforms headed by the Operation Vula project in energy, logistics, crime, and corruption, with local government improvements a new priority, the parties are in general agreement on what’s needed.

Goodwill and good sentiment have given the GNU a sheen, but now that the rubber hits the road, attention is increasingly turning to its meaning in people’s lives.

Fourteen attacks on South Africa by the Donald Trump 2.0 administration since the beginning of the year have also rattled economic prospects, with 500,000 jobs at risk if the African Growth and Opportunity Act free trade pact goes to the wall.

“The GNU must develop trust among its participating parties. This can only be achieved through daily collaboration and public alignment on shared strategic goals. Working together towards common objectives is essential for fostering a cohesive government.

“The GNU needs to substantially improve its public diplomacy and strategic communication. Transparent and effective communication with the South African public is vital to build the confidence necessary for the GNU’s long-term legitimacy and sustainability,” says Mari Harris of Ipsos.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana was in Washington this week at the International Monetary Fund/World Bank talks, and the deal to end the GNU impasse will help South Africa’s game.

GNU scenarios







Daily Maverick adapts scenarios for what will happen to the GNU as we report the impasse.  

The GNU, in its present form, will last with a compromise on VAT. The ANC and DA know this is their best bet for doing well in the next elections. Polls by different think tanks, supportive of either of the big parties, show members want them to act together in South Africa’s best interests.

They will probably be accommodated because Action SA and Bosa helped the ANC pass the fiscal framework. However, the public will probably frown on any increase to the already bloated Cabinet and wider executive.

Scenario 2, where the DA leaves while Action SA and Bosa join, is now unlikely. Scenario 3, where the EFF joins the GNU while the DA leaves, is popular in a substantial part of the ANC but is still doubtful. The Red Berets will not enter a government with the DA even though it went to court with the party to fight the VAT increase.

VAT vendors who have communicated the increase will have to reverse their systems, but on the whole, struggling South Africans will breathe a sigh of relief that the increase in sales tax has been cancelled. DM

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