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War likely to stretch into 2023, warns top commander; Russia will emerge stronger, says Putin

War likely to stretch into 2023, warns top commander; Russia will emerge stronger, says Putin
Bloomberg
By Bloomberg
8 Sep 2022
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Russia’s war on Ukraine is likely to stretch into next year, Ukraine’s top army commander, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, warned in an article, where he pleaded for allies to send longer-range weapons.

Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg wrote in a guest article for the Financial Times that the war in Ukraine is “entering a critical phase” and warned of a tough winter ahead for members of the military alliance that could include “energy cuts, disruptions and perhaps even civil unrest”. 

Why Europe is crippled by a wartime energy Crisis: QuickTake

A defiant President Vladimir Putin dismissed accusations that he’s using energy as a weapon and said Russia will emerge stronger from his invasion of Ukraine. Chancellor Olaf Scholz earlier accused the Kremlin leader of seeking to blackmail Germany and its European partners by shutting off gas deliveries and highlighted the importance of ending imports of Russian fossil fuels. 

Key developments 



On the ground


Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks in the northern Kharkiv region and have retaken several settlements, according to the latest report from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War. Russian redeployment of forces from the area to defend against a counteroffensive in Kherson in the south probably prompted and facilitated the counterattacks, the institute said. Ukraine’s General Staff reported steady Russian missile and air strikes on military and civilian targets in the east and south of the country. According to its regular update on Facebook, Ukrainian troops were holding their positions and preventing Russian forces from advancing deeper into the country. 

Russian official proposes November 4 referendums in occupied areas 


Russian-occupied provinces in Ukraine can hold referendums on joining Russia on November 4, according to Andrey Turchak, a top official in the country’s ruling party. That’s Unity Day in Russia, a public holiday that “unites all of us in the space of Russia World”, he said in a party press release. 

Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the local Russian occupation administration in Kherson, said the territory would be preparing for the referendum on this date, according to the Tass news agency. The referendums, originally targeted for September, were postponed because Russian troops haven’t yet been able to take full control of the areas.

Scholz pledges sustained German help 


Scholz told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that Germany would “not let up” in its aid to Kyiv, in terms of military assistance, but also political, financial and humanitarian aid. The two spoke by phone about the reconstruction conference to be hosted by Scholz in Berlin on October 25. Zelensky said he stressed to the German leader the need for a “full-fledged” financial aid programme from the International Monetary Fund. 

Ukraine received five Gepard anti-aircraft systems from Germany this week, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said at a government meeting on Wednesday. He said Berlin would also soon send the first of three Iris-T air defence systems to help protect Ukrainian cities from Russian missiles.

War set to drag into next year, says top Ukraine commander  


The active war with Russia will in all likelihood stretch into next year, Ukrainian army commander-in-chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi wrote in an article for the Kyiv-based news agency Ukrinform.

Russia may still try to capture Kyiv again via neighbouring Belarus, Zaluzhnyi wrote, as well as push deeper into the country’s territory toward the cities of Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia or seek gains in the south. Ukraine would need several simultaneous counter-offensives next year to change the situation, he wrote.

But Zaluzhnyi suggests that even a hypothetical liberation of Crimea by Ukraine won’t make a significant change to the way Russia wages the war. He urged allies to provide Ukraine with long-range weapons to match Russia’s ability to hit targets at 2,000km versus the maximum range of 100km with Ukraine’s current weapons. 





 

 



 

Ukraine ‘needs control of nuclear plant’ to work on IAEA plan  


Recommendations of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) can be fulfilled only if Ukraine fully regains control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko said on Facebook. 

“Only we can guarantee implementation of all components of secure operation and we are interested in that, unlike the Russians,” Halushchenko said.

EU prepares to release €5bn for Ukraine 


The European Union formally proposed releasing €5-billion of aid for Ukraine, part of a larger €9-billion package pledged last May, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tweeted. 

Baltic states aim for Russian visa ban 


The European Union’s Baltic members reached a deal to restrict Russian citizens from entering the bloc at land crossings and will aim to pass national measures by mid-September.

Read more: Baltic states aim for Russian visa ban by mid-September

The move would further complicate entry for Russian holders of Schengen visas for travel throughout the EU’s visa-free travel zone. Latvia and Estonia — both of which share a border with Russia — are finalising the details of the restrictions for government approval as early as this week, foreign ministers for both nations said on Wednesday in Kaunas. 

Xi, Putin to meet 


Xi Jinping will meet Putin in Uzbekistan next week, Tass reported, during the Chinese leader’s first trip abroad in 2½ years.

Read more: Xi, Putin to meet for first time since Russia’s war in Ukraine

Xi will sit down with Putin on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit that runs from September 15-16 in Samarkand, Russia’s ambassador to China, Andrey Denisov said, according to the state-run news agency. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said at a news briefing in Beijing that she didn’t have information on any such meeting.

Myanmar junta head hails Putin 


Myanmar junta head Min Aung Hlaing, who’s sanctioned by the US for alleged human rights violations, hailed Putin as the “leader of the world” during talks on the sidelines of an economic forum in Vladivostok.

“We would call you not the leader of Russia, but the leader of the world, because you control stability across the globe,” the Myanmar military ruler said, according to a Kremlin statement. Putin noted the “positive” development of relations between Russia and the Southeast Asian state, which he called a “trustworthy partner.”

Wheat jumps after Putin criticises grain deal 


Chicago wheat futures jumped more than 3% after Russian President Vladimir Putin criticised the recently agreed Ukraine grain deal.

Read more: Wheat jumps more than 3% as Putin criticises Ukraine grain deal

The grain shipment corridor from Ukraine is not helping poorer countries, as the majority of supplies are going to Europe, Putin said during the Vladivostok Economic Forum. Russia was deceived, even though “we have done everything to reach these agreements, we adhere to them and ensure them”, he said.





 

 



 

Scholz says Nord Stream leak is a ‘pretence’ 


Scholz dismissed an apparent leak in the key Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline as a “pretence” and said that “Russia could deliver if it wanted to”.

In prepared remarks to the lower House of Parliament, he said Gazprom simply needed to request a turbine for the Nord Stream 1 link that is in western Germany and ready for use after repairs. “We have to make ourselves independent of such an unreliable supplier as quickly as possible,” Scholz said.

‘We’ve lost nothing,’ says Putin 


“I’m sure that we’ve lost nothing and won’t lose anything,” Putin said in Vladivostok. He was asked about the conflict in Ukraine by the panel’s moderator following a speech in which he didn’t directly mention the war once. “The main thing we’ll gain is strengthening our sovereignty,” he added. 

The US and its allies estimate that tens of thousands of Russian troops have been killed or wounded and huge amounts of military equipment destroyed since Putin ordered the February 24 invasion. Russia has also faced a barrage of US and European sanctions that are pushing its economy toward recession. 

UK’s Truss discusses Ukraine with Biden 


The UK’s new prime minister, Liz Truss, spoke with US President Joe Biden and the two leaders discussed cooperation on issues including “supporting Ukraine as it defends itself against Russian aggression”, according to a White House statement. 

Russia ‘seeks millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea’


Russia wants to buy millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea to use in its war against Ukraine, a sign that Western sanctions on its military and economy are starting to bite, US officials said on Tuesday.

Read more: US says Russia turning to impoverished North Korea for weapons

The decision to buy the munitions indicates that Russia “continues to suffer from severe supply shortages in Ukraine due in part to export controls and sanctions”, State Department deputy spokesman Vedant Patel told reporters. 

“Our sense is that it could include literally millions of rounds,” John Kirby, spokesman for the National Security Council, said. But he said there are no indications that purchases from North Korea had been completed.

Truss makes first call to Zelensky 


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he spoke with Truss, inviting her to visit his country and calling for further pressure on Russia. 

A British readout of the conversation said: “In her first call with a counterpart since becoming prime minister, she reiterated to the Ukrainian leader that he had her full backing, and Ukraine could depend on the UK’s assistance for the long term.” DM

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