We should not expect fireworks at the ANC’s policy conference

As ANC delegates prepare to start “discussing policy” at Nasrec this weekend, it appears that this conference may be very similar to previous ANC policy conferences, where most discussions are really a proxy for the leadership contest to come. For President Cyril Ramaphosa, this poses serious risks as there are indications that his signature political achievement, the adoption of the “step-aside” rule, could be unpopular with the people in the room and even overturned. And yet, things will probably not be as explosive as some anticipate. 

This uncertainty may be a chance for Ramaphosa and his allies to regroup. As is so often the case ahead of ANC events, the noise could eventually dim down within the conference itself, with the outcomes not quite as radical as preliminary talk suggests.

The importance of this National Policy Conference cannot be overstated. It is the first time ANC branch delegates from more than one province are gathering in the same physical space since they elected Ramaphosa as ANC leader at the same venue in 2017.

Much has happened since then, which means this is the first time ANC branches can now finally indicate their feelings about Ramaphosa and his leadership over the last five years — the usual mid-term National General Council had to be scrapped because of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Ramaphosa has suffered several setbacks in the last 10 days. 

First, at the Jessie Duarte memorial service last week, former president Thabo Mbeki said in public that there is really no plan to address South Africa’s problems and that there could be “an explosion” similar to the Arab Spring that engulfed North Africa just over 10 years ago. Echoing his brother, Moeletsi, who made a similar prediction in 2012, Mbeki warned that without action, our country may be headed for serious trouble, primarily because there are no jobs for young people.

Then, this last weekend, the KwaZulu-Natal ANC started its conference singing Wenzeni uZuma (What did Zuma do?) and delegates had to be asked to quieten down to allow Ramaphosa to speak.

This may suggest that Ramaphosa is now swimming against the tide within the ANC just as the National Policy Conference kicks off.

Still, it is also possible to overstate the scale of Ramaphosa’s setback.

First, while the result in KZN was obviously against him, it was not unexpected. The real question may be whether the KZN ANC is truly and completely united — it is likely that Ramaphosa’s supporters have factored in this kind of split scenario.

Also, Ramaphosa has been on the offensive in recent days.

He used the KZN ANC conference to respond to Mbeki, saying that it was not true there was no plan, and that his government was trying to resolve our society’s problems.

His “family meeting” on Monday night, giving his plan to end rolling blackouts, may also have reminded people of the power of the presidency — he arrives at the policy conference with a solution to one of our biggest problems already on the table.

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