Weather watch: SA’s southwest forecast to have a dry autumn/early winter

The south-western parts of South Africa, where the rainy season typically occurs during autumn and winter, is forecast to be drier than usual during those seasons, the South African Weather Service said on Wednesday, 5 March 2025. 

In its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch, which provides a five-month outlook — in this case March to July — the weather service maintained its previous forecast for a wetter-than-usual late summer for the north-eastern parts of the country, a forecast that is now extended into early autumn. 

The forecast comes against the backdrop of a fading of the global weather pattern known as La Niña, which usually heralds good rains across much of southern Africa. 

“For South Africa time is running out... for a potential La Niña to affect us as summer is coming to an end,” the report pointedly noted. “... the most important forecast is for the southwestern parts of the country, where below-normal rainfall is expected.”

Concerning

This is concerning on a number of fronts.

Dam levels in the Western Cape are currently at 66.8%, according to the latest weekly update from the Department of Water and Sanitation, and the province relies heavily on the autumn and winter rainy season to raise them.

A relative dearth of rain in the autumn and winter could also have negative implications for the winter wheat crop, with planting generally commencing in May.

Meanwhile, KwaZulu-Natal needs to brace for the possibility of more floods. 

“The expected above-normal rainfall conditions in the north-eastern parts of the country, particularly KwaZulu-Natal province, are likely to increase water levels during the forecasted period. These conditions may result in flash floods in flood-prone regions of the province,” the weather service said. 

And across almost all of South Africa, temperatures are expected to be on the warm side through to July.

“Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period. However, the southern coastal areas indicate that below-normal temperatures are more likely throughout the summer period,” the weather service said. DM

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