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Politics, South Africa, Elections, Maverick News

Solid IFP win and shaky MK showing in KZN, while ANC and DA upend each other in Northern Cape, North West polls

5 Dec 2024

While most eyes were on Thabazimbi yesterday, there were six other by-elections. The IFP had a very good hold in Mtubatuba, while the ANC and the DA swapped seats in two other by-elections. The Patriotic Alliance retained a seat in Oudtshoorn while the ANC was dominant in the Eastern Cape.

KwaZulu-Natal

Ward 16 (Ensolweni) Mtubatuba, uMkhanyakude: IFP 53% (45%) ANC 32% (35%) MK 13% AEF 1% UCDP <1% (1%) NFP < 1% (<1%) TRUTH <1%

The setting: Ensolweni is a rural village northwest of the town of Mtubatuba. Ward 16 borders the Big 5 Hlabisa Municipality. Mtubatuba forms part of the broader uMkhanyakude district, which is in the far north of the province, extending from Mtubatuba and St Lucia all the way to the Eswatini and Mozambique border, to places such as Ingwavuma and the Ndumo Reserve, and just past Kosi Bay.

The 2021 local government elections: The IFP beat the ANC by 264 votes in a closely fought contest, winning four of the five voting districts. The ANC won the most-populous voting district, Khulubone Primary School, by 92 votes. Key to the IFP’s victory was its wide margin at the second-most-populous district, Isolesizwe High School. The IFP built a 183-vote buffer in this district.

The United Democratic Movement (UDM) came third in this ward with 13% of the vote. The UDM’s best showing in this ward was in the Ntandabantu Primary School district where it took 23%. The EFF came fourth with 3%.

The IFP was the biggest party in the 45-seat council with 19 seats followed by the ANC on 16, but neither was able to form a stable coalition without the backing of the EFF, which came third with four seats. The IFP and EFF formed a government with the outside support of the DA and the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP).

The 2024 provincial elections: The IFP was the most popular party in the ward with 49% of the vote. This means the IFP surpassed its 2021 total in the ward. MK was second with 36% and the ANC a distant third with 11%, followed by the EFF on 2%.

MK was the most popular party in the municipality with 43%, with the IFP second on 37%. The ANC was third (13%) and the EFF fourth (2%), just ahead of the DA (2%).

In 2019, the ANC was the most popular party in Mtubatuba with 42%. The IFP was just behind on 40%. The EFF came third with 10% and the DA fourth on 4%. The four most established parties from 2019 all went backwards in Mtubatuba in 2024.

The by-election: The ward councillor and former mayor of Mtubatuba, Musawenkosi Mkhwanazi, died following an illness. The IFP beat the ANC by 588 votes. It won four of the five voting districts, with the ANC besting the IFP at the Ntandabantu School district.

The IFP improved on both its 2021 and provincial election returns to win more than half of the vote. The big surprise in this by-election was the poor performance of the MK party. It only won 13% of the vote, well off the 36% mark from May. The ANC beat MK in all five voting districts as the former clawed back a lot of the support it lost in May.

Poll: 54% (58%)

Western Cape

Ward 9 (Dysselsdorp) in Oudtshoorn, Garden Route: PA 49% (65%) ANC 32% (32%) DA (Incumbent) 17% IFO 1%

The setting: Dysselsdorp is off the N12 national road between Oudtshoorn and De Rust. It is a former mission station. Oudtshoorn, the second-most-populous municipality on the Garden Route, is known for its ostrich farms and the Cango Caves.

The April 2024 by-election: Former ward councillor and ANC mayor Chad Louw defected to the PA. He was not on the ballot for the by-election.

This was arguably the PA’s most impressive by-election performance, moving from a scant 1% to 65%. The party swept all four voting districts. The ANC lost just under a third of its support. The DA was not on the ballot.

The PA’s gain meant the new 25-seat Oudtshoorn council composition was: DA 7 ANC 7 (8) FF+ 3 PA 2 (1) ICOSA 2 EFF, GOOD, Advies Kantoor and Suid Kaap Staan (SKS) all one seat.

The 2024 provincial elections: The PA showed that its by-election win in Dysseldorp was not a fluke. It won 56% of the vote in Dysseldorp. The ANC came second with 26%. In 2019, the ANC won 49%. The DA came a distant third with only 11%, well down from 39% in 2019. In this ward the PA hurt both the ANC and the DA, with the DA bearing slightly more of the PA’s brunt. GOOD was fourth with 2%, dropping from 9% in 2019.

The DA was again the most popular party in Oudtshoorn with its 40% haul, having recorded 50% in 2019. The PA came second with 28%. It was a standout performance by a party which did not feature in Oudtshoorn in 2019. It took votes across the municipality from the ANC, DA, GOOD and some regional parties. The ANC fell to third, sliding from 33% to 20%. The FF+ was the fourth-most-popular party, improving from 4% to 5%.

The by-election: The ward councillor quit the PA, citing disrespect from his party as a chief reason for his resignation as councillor and party member, then joined the DA and was chosen as its candidate for this by-election.

Oudtshoorn also has an FF+ mayor now. The FF+ worked with other parties to depose the DA mayor and is in coalition with the ANC, PA and two local parties. The coalition controls 14 of the 25 council seats.

The PA held the seat, winning just under half of the vote. The party won three out of the four voting districts, ceding a less-populous district to the ANC. If one combines the PA’s percentage return with the DA’s you get a very similar figure to what the PA obtained in the previous by-election in the ward. This suggests that the former ward councillor running for the DA took just over a quarter of the PA’s vote in this ward.

The ANC will be satisfied with its second place and not losing any ground, as the trend has been in other rural Western Cape seats since the May election.

The DA was able to improve on its showing here in May during the provincial elections, but was still well off the pace. The party has a lot to do in communities like this on the Garden Route between now and 2026.

While the PA did lose ground, it still beat the ANC by 353 votes and has now won this ward twice in the same calendar year. The party went into 2024 with only 1% support in Dysselsdorp. It has now firmly entrenched itself as the most popular party in this part of Oudtshoorn.

Poll: 45% (47%)

North West

Ward 5 (Wolmaransstad Tswelelang) Maquassi Hills, Dr Kenneth Kaunda: DA 42% (35%) ANC 38% (43%) EFF 20% (6%) ACP < 1% TRUTH <1%

The setting: Wolmaransstad is the seat of power in Maquassi Hills. The ward includes the town centre and a part of the Tswelelang township which is just south of the town, on the R505 regional road between Wolmaransstad and Makwassie. There are also four sparsely populated farming districts in the ward. The area is known for its diamond diggings, groundnuts and maize. It is the least populated municipality in Kenneth Kaunda. The district includes Potchefstroom and Klerksdorp.

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC beat the DA by 152 votes in the ward. The FF+ was the only other party to get into double percentage figures (14%).

The ANC achieved the win through a large turnout in Tswelelang. Turnout was 60% there, while only 45% of registered voters showed up in the DA stronghold of Wolmaransstad. The ANC also swept the four farming districts, sharing the spoils in the least-populated district with the FF+.

The ANC won 13 of the 22 seats here in 2021, slightly down from 14 in 2016. The EFF consolidated its position as the second-largest party in the municipality, securing four seats, up from three. The DA was third with two while three parties won a single seat each – the South African Political Association (SAPA), the FF+ and the Forum 4 Service Delivery (F4SD).

The 2024 provincial elections: The DA edged the ANC by two percentage points with a 37% tally in the ward. The ANC was again able to produce an impressive turnout differential in Tswelelang. However, it lost ground to the EFF. The latter came third with 18% and the FF+ fourth with 7%. In essence, the DA won votes off the FF+ and the ANC lost votes to the EFF.

The ANC won 62% in Maquassi Hills, down 7% from 2019. The EFF jumped from 14% to 24% for an impressive second place. It must be remembered that the EFF shocked the ANC in a Tswelelang by-election in late September 2023. The red berets’ showing in Maquassi Hills in the provincial election proved that the by-election win was not a fluke. The DA remained steady on 9% while the FF+ fell from 5% to 2%.

The by-election: The ward councillor died after battling illness. The FF+ decided not to throw its hat into this by-election ring.

After losing a ward to the EFF in 2023, the ANC was left with 12 of the 22 seats. The party needed to retain Ward 5 to prevent a hung council and the need to form a coalition.

The DA upended the ANC by 112 votes. Key to this win was the party’s support growing from 62% to 80% in Wolmaransstad. While the DA did not have to fend off the FF+, it had to contend with an impressive ANC turnout machine in Tswelelang. It was unable to close the turnout differential between Tswelelang and Wolmaransstad, with the gap becoming wider in this election – 66% of voters showed up in Tswelelang compared with 49% in Wolmaransstad, a significant 17% gap. The gap in 2021 was 15%.

The ANC’s undoing was the repeat growth of the EFF in Tswelelang. The ANC’s percentage vote share declined from 81% to 59%, while the EFF grew from 10% to 34%. The result in this district shows how the EFF was able to surge from 6% to 20%.

The ANC has now lost two successive wards in Maquassi Hills. The latest defeat means the council is hung. The new council composition is: ANC 11 (12) EFF 5 DA 3 (2) FF+ 1 Forum 4 Service Delivery (F4SD) 1 SA Political Association 1. Total: 22. The ANC is likely to turn to the F4SD to ensure it has a majority in council.

Poll: 56% (49%)

Northern Cape

Ward 1 (Williston) Karoo Hoogland in Namakwa: ANC 63% (45%) PA 19% (1%) DA 18% (49%)

The setting: Williston is pretty isolated. The closest town, Fraserburg, is 90Km away, on a part tar, part gravel road. It is more than 115km to Williston from Calvinia, Carnarvon and Brandvlei. The town is known for its corbelled houses, lamb and tombstones. The rugby player De Kock Steenkamp hails from these parts. He must have eaten a lot of the local lamb growing up. Ward 1 only has one voting station. The other towns in Karoo Hoogland are Fraserburg and Sutherland.

The 2021 local government elections: The DA surprised the ANC, winning just under 50% of the vote, beating the latter by 40 votes. The Congress of the People (COPE) was third with 4%.

The ANC fell one seat short of an outright majority, winning five of the 11. It shared half of the six wards with the DA. These were the only three seats won by the DA. The PA emerged as kingmaker in the municipality with two seats. The FF+ obtained one.

The 2024 provincial elections: The ANC finished well ahead of the DA in Williston, winning 59%, down slightly on 61% in 2019. The DA came second with 34% (26% in 2019). The PA followed with 5%. COPE and FF+, two fixtures of the election in 2019, barely featured.

The ANC finished first in Karoo Hoogland with 42% (46% in 2019). The DA came second with 30%, down a big 11% from 2019. The PA surged to third with an impressive 18%. The FF+ was fourth with 5%, down a single percentage point.

The by-election: The ward councillor resigned. The ANC won by a landslide to take its second consecutive ward off the DA in the Northern Cape. The party won a seat off the DA in the town of Groblershoop in the !Kheis municipality in October.

The ANC beat the PA by 555 votes and the DA by 571 in a landslide win in Williston. This means it wins outright control of Karoo Hoogland.

The new council composition is: ANC 6 (5) DA 2 (3) PA 2 FF+ 1 in the 11 seat council.

The ANC will be buoyed by these two big wins in the Northern Cape. The province was where the DA lost the most ground in 2024 compared with its 2019 showing. These back-to-back defeats indicate that the party has a big challenge in the Northern Cape. The PA consolidated its support from May in this ward for a solid second-place finish.

Poll: 65% (59%)

Eastern Cape

Ward 11 (Mthambalala Gemvale) Port St Johns, OR Tambo: ANC 88% (68% PR) MK 12%

Ward 11 covers a vast area of the rural rump of the Port St Johns municipality. It sits between Port St Johns and Lusikisiki, north and northeast of Port St Johns which forms part of the ANC stronghold of OR Tambo, which includes Mthatha, Libode and Qumbu.

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC won 62% of the ward vote, with the EFF second on 20% and an independent candidate a credible third with 14%. The ANC won 68% of the proportional representation (PR) ballot vote, as the EFF came second with a laudable 27%.

The ANC held firm on 31 seats in the 39-seat chamber. The EFF became the official opposition with three, up from the one it had. The African Transformation Movement (ATM) was the only other party to get more than one seat.

The 2024 national elections: The national election result is used as the mode of comparison here since there was a tabulation error with one of the districts on the provincial ballot. The ANC won 86%, improving on its 82% return in 2019. The EFF was the second most popular here but slid from 9% to 7%. The UDM was third with 2%, up from 1% in 2019. MK finished sixth on 1%.

The ANC won 84% in the municipality, down by a single percentage point. The EFF finished second on 7%, up by one percentage point. The ATM came third on 3%, the same return as 2019. MK was sixth with 1%. It followed the DA and the UDM.

The by-election: The ward councillor died. The ANC won more than 90% of the vote in five of the seven voting districts. It won 100% in a sparsely populated district where seven votes were cast. MK’s best showing was 30% at the Mathane School.

The ANC remains dominant in Port St Johns. MK will know it will have to go back to their Eastern Cape drawing board in its bid for more success in the OR Tambo district.

Poll: 39% (61%)

Ward 31 (Thornhill Mitford) Enoch Mgijima, Chris Hani. Uncontested by-election: ANC retains ward

The setting: Ward 31 includes settlements which were part of the former Ciskei Bantustan. Communities were resettled there by the apartheid government. Thornhill and Mitford are west of Komani (formerly Queenstown), below the R61 regional road which links Komani with Tarkastad.

The municipality also encompasses Molteno, Hofmeyr, Tarkastad, Whittlesea and Ngquzubomvu (formerly Sterkstroom).

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC romped home with 80%, followed by the EFF on 8% and the DA with half of the EFF’s returns.

The ANC won 44 of the 68 council seats, losing six in the election. The bulk went to a local party, The Independents, led by Twizza CEO Ken Clark, who won five. The ANC also lost a seat to an independent candidate. The DA was the second biggest party with seven seats, down by two. The EFF remained steady on six to finish third, one seat ahead of The Independents.

The 2024 provincial elections: The ANC won 79% of the vote in the ward, slightly down from 81% in 2019. The EFF was second with 10%, matching its 2019 figure. The DA declined from 6% to 5%. MK came fourth with 2%, suggesting that is what caused the ANC to decline by 2%.

Read more: By-elections results hub

The ANC was not as consistent in the rest of the municipality. The party declined from 75% to 65%. The DA remained runner-up with a small improvement from 11% to 12%. The EFF was just behind the DA, moving from 9% to 11%. The UDM came fourth with 3%, up by 1% from 2019.

The by-election: The ward councillor resigned. No party challenged the ANC which was the only party on the ballot. It retained the ward without breaking a sweat.

Poll: (58%)

The penultimate round of by-elections will be on 11 December when the EFF defends a marginal seat in the Elias Motsoaledi municipality in Limpopo. DM

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