Western allies warn US that hostility towards South Africa risks strengthening populists

11 Apr 2025

Western diplomats are anxious about the stability of a coalition government in South Africa that excludes the DA.

The US has been warned by some of its Western allies that its hostility towards South Africa is counter-productive and is driving the ANC into the hands of the populists.

The warnings come as the DA’s continued participation in the Government of National Unity (GNU) remains in jeopardy, fuelling fears among Western allies and investors of greater instability and policy uncertainty in South Africa.

One Western diplomat told Daily Maverick: “We are telling the Americans that if you keep on doing what you are doing, you may achieve exactly the contrary of what you want to achieve in South Africa, like you did with all your interventions.

“You intervened in Afghanistan to save women. Now women are in a much worse position than they ever were. You intervened in Iraq to save Christians, there’s no Christians left. You intervened in Somalia to save the country, there’s no country left.

“You intervened in Syria to save democracy, but there’s no democracy left.

“So, with every intervention you did, you achieved exactly the contrary of what you wanted to achieve.

“And here, now you claim you want to protect white farmers and the white minority. But by doing what you do, actually you pull the carpet from under the feet of the moderates.

“And actually it may lead to a situation where those populist guys take over. And then this country will be a very difficult place for all of us.”

Read more: Top SA officials meet US counterparts to explain controversial Expropriation Act

‘Unchartered territory’

Meanwhile, Western diplomats generally expressed support for the GNU in its current composition and are anxious about what might replace it if it disintegrates.

“We continue to think a little bit like the business community, that the best-case scenario is the GNU as currently configured… Can’t these guys find a way of making this work?” one diplomat said.

He added that “it seems increasingly unlikely to me that they can make it work. They could maybe tide it over for a few more weeks and months,” he said, but he thought the lack of trust between the ANC and DA probably doomed the GNU in the longer run.

He said he could see the logic of Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana and Presidency spokesperson Vincent Magwenya saying: “You can’t vote against a Budget you have to implement.”

“But equally, I can see the DA’s point of view, which is, well, hang on a minute, we made clear that we didn’t support it. And you’ve only got this through by getting votes from outside the GNU.”

Read more: GNU 2.0 — ANC presses ‘Control-Alt-Delete’ on the national coalition

Another diplomat agreed that it was “uncharted territory, to have somebody in the government who didn’t agree to the Budget”.

In other countries that had had experience of coalition governments, for a junior partner to vote against the budget was invariably the death knell for the coalition.

For example, last year German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s “traffic light” coalition government, of his Social Democratic Party (SPD) with the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens, collapsed when the FDP opposed the budget, much as the DA opposing the ANC’s Budget has threatened the continuation of the GNU.

So this diplomat also thought the GNU was ultimately doomed, but that “there’s some kind of cat and mouse game going on. Nobody wants to pull the plug on it. So the DA doesn’t want to be seen as those who leave the GNU and the ANC doesn't want to be seen as those ones who chase them away.”

Yet both sides were issuing increasingly critical statements about each other, suggesting the GNU was on a downward path towards eventual dissolution, he noted.

Read more: ANC National Working Committee resolves to ‘reset’ relationship with DA, other partners

Shaky foundations

Some diplomats also blame the fractures in the GNU on the way it was so hurriedly assembled after the general elections in May 2024, and so lacked any comprehensive, detailed written “instruction manual”.

They noted that a new coalition that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union and the SPD announced this week was based on a 146-page roadmap that basically detailed the government’s programme for the next three or four years.

By contrast, it had become clear that the GNU was not a coalition.

“There is no coalition agreement that we would recognise. There’s the statement of intent, which has some quite weak language about resolving disputes when there isn’t consensus.

“Even those within the ANC who believe in the GNU don’t see it as a coalition with the DA. They just see it as a better alternative to having to summon votes from MK and the EFF.”

Western governments, at least, would be dismayed if the GNU collapsed as they believe the DA ministers — Home Affairs Minister Leon Schreiber in particular — have done a good job, and so have some ANC ministers who were shifted to new portfolios, such as Transport Minister Barbara Creecy.

“I’m grateful for every day that these new ministers are here, compared with those who occupied those posts before. It’s a big breath of fresh air, I would say,” said one diplomat.

Diplomats blamed both the ANC and the DA for the bust-up.

They felt the DA should have been more flexible, for example, by not demanding a written guarantee that it would have a greater say in making economic policy such as co-chairing the Vulindlela infrastructure development initiative.

Read more: After the Bell: Did the DA inadvertently touch the ANC on its studio?

On the other hand, they felt the ANC should have been prepared to share more power.

“The ANC is saying, well, it’s nice to have DA ministers, but it’s still us calling the show. And then the DA people saying, no, we are together now, so you need to share and develop ideas together.”

One diplomat found it extraordinary that the ANC was saying that its right to dictate foreign policy was set out in legislation, so if the DA wanted to challenge that, they would have to change the law — “which is ludicrous”.

He thought that if the ANC wanted to keep the DA out of foreign policy, it should give them a greater say in economic policy, which is what the DA wanted.

A more explicit, public coalition treaty or programme would have helped to forestall that problem, another said.

Potential instability

The Western diplomats are concerned as others are that any coalition that the ANC might form with, say, ActionSA and Bosa rather than the DA would be unstable because its majority in Parliament would be so small. It was especially unstable because ActionSA had voted for the Budget on the basis of a commitment that had no legal weight, that the Budget could be balanced without a VAT increase.

Read more: Maimane advocates for unity: Bosa seeks collaboration to reverse VAT hike and foster growth

“I’m pretty sure that if that was possible, then Godongwana would have found it,” one diplomat said. “And I think there are actually some good DA people sitting around the Cabinet table at the moment doing a good job. I would be less confident that Herman Mashaba and the like would do the same.”

One diplomat said there had not been enough focus on what a collapse of the GNU might mean for KwaZulu-Natal.

“Because if that coalition falls apart, there is only one alternative, and that is an MK-led province, and that would be a disaster not only for KZN, but for the country.” DM

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South Africa

‘Unchartered territory’

Shaky foundations

Potential instability