What happens after 1,000 days of the GNU? Two must-read books

Oscar van Heerden. Image: Supplied

By Ferial Haffajee

21 Aug 2024

An insider view into the inner workings of the ANC, and a dystopian novel that explores the idea of a breakaway Cape Republic.

Oscar van Heerden is the quintessential ANC insider and also a sharp intellect. This is what makes his book Is the Party Over? an important read to understand the Government of National Unity (GNU).

The book is a revealing look inside the Presidency and an insight into the forces that will shape the GNU.

Van Heerden is a long-standing activist and member of the ANC in addition to being an author and academic, most recently at the University of Johannesburg.

Oscar van Heerden. Image: Supplied

I don’t want to give it all away but his account of how President Cyril Ramaphosa almost resigned in the wake of the parliamentary report into the Phala Phala scandal hasn’t been told before.

The ringside seat also pivots around a crucial meeting with Northern Cape Premier Zamani Saul and how he helped secure the president’s continued tenure.

In just over 1,200 days, Ramaphosa will be a lame duck president because that is when the ANC next goes to its national conference. He can’t stand again and so whoever becomes president is de facto head of state in the party-led system that the democratic-era has never, ever been able to shake.

That conference happens in December 2027.

As things stand, Deputy President Paul Mashatile is likely to become the ANC president and then finally take up his role as “The ANC Man”. Depending on what happens in the 2029 election, he could be the president.

Shapeshifter

Either way, Mashatile will be a shapeshifter between now and then.

If you want to understand him, Van Heerden’s book is a must-read as it sets out how Paul Mashatile manoeuvred himself into the second most powerful role in the country.

He did this by being the chess master at successive ANC conferences. At that game he is without peer, as those of us who report on these conferences know too well. Van Heerden has an insider perch within the meeting venues that is riveting to read.

Beyond that, his take on how economic policy has been shaped and reshaped in the ANC is wide ranging and will whip you through key party texts so you don’t have to sweat through them yourself.

Many within the ANC are not fans of the GNU led by the ANC and DA: it’s no secret that a large body of party leaders would have preferred a tie-up with the IFP, the EFF and even the Patriotic Alliance. Others, like former health minister Zweli Mkhize, wanted a rapprochement with former president Jacob Zuma, whose political start-up uMkhonto Wesizwe is the political story of 2029.

This book explains the balance of forces even though it was written before the elections. While its predictions are wrong, it is still an excellent read if, like me, you want to understand more deeply what will happen with the unity government that now governs South Africa.

***

Another book I thoroughly enjoyed is Good Hope by Nick Clelland.

When I read that the former MP and communications strategist (or spin doctor) has written a dystopian sci-fi novel on a breakaway Cape Republic, I just had to get my hands on it.

I downloaded a copy and read it in a sitting. It’s a fictional projection of what a breakaway Cape Republic might be like to live in. Thankfully, the Cape Independence crowd, so loud on social media, bombed spectacularly in the May 2024 national and provincial elections.

The book may have had something to do with it.

In it, Clelland imagines a totalitarian and surveillance state that projects the perfect Cape society with frightening revelations of what keeps it going.

Lisa migrates from Durban (where Clelland is from, so he writes it up really well) to the Cape to join her politician partner, Grant. He supports humane gassing as a death penalty and is a rising star in the fictional Good Hope Republic (also known as the Autonomous Republic of Good Hope) where black people can live but only after attaining a certain education.

Formerly the Western Cape, it was established after a breakaway in 2007 and unilaterally declared independence from South Africa. Its Wikipedia profile (a device Clelland uses to navigate through the political anatomy of the text) says that it is the most prosperous country in the southern hemisphere.

A 'vindictive and authoritarian regime'

Big on oil and gas but with its legendary natural beauty, the territory is still very popular with tourists. The African Union has called it a “vindictive and authoritarian regime”, but that doesn’t stop the government or the tourist arrivals. The territory ends up being part Cape Town, part Rwanda (successful but authoritarian surveillance state) and more than a little Zimbabwe (not giving a damn about what anybody thinks).

The story revolves around Lisa’s growing political awakening to what lies beneath her long oceanside runs and yoga classes in the Republic of Ominous.

There is a rebellion, there is extra-judicial killing. There’s a great story here of the very poor idea that is Cape Independence.

Clelland spins a great tale, and there’s more than a few political characters you may recognise if you enjoy politics. Even if you don’t, it’s still a good read.

I’m so glad the Cape Independence movement ran aground and that we remain one nation. The unity government, the GNU, is not without its detractors, but it is by a country mile a better idea than the Cape Independence lobby wanted out of the 2024 elections. DM

Is the Party Over by Oscar van Heerden (2024) is published by Jacana.

Good Hope by Nick Clelland (2024), is published by Karavan Press.

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A 'vindictive and authoritarian regime'