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Why South Africa’s white maize prices are rocketing and what it means for you

Wandile Sihlobo
By Wandile Sihlobo
6 Jan 2025
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South African white maize prices may remain high for some time. Here is why and the implications for consumers.

Higher white maize prices in South Africa may be a reality in the first quarter of 2025. Relief may start in the second quarter. On Friday, 3 January, South Africa's white maize spot price traded at about R6,871 per tonne, up more than 50% from the previous year.

The fundamental challenge we face is that white maize stocks are tight. If we continue using about 428,667 tonnes monthly, the 2024/25 marketing year may end with closing stocks of just 277,884 tonnes by 30 April 2025, according to the National Agricultural Marketing Council’s November 2024 report.

To understand how tight such closing stocks are, consider the 2023/24 marketing year: the white maize closing stocks were 1.3 million tonnes, and in the 2022/23 marketing year they were 1.1 million tonnes.

The 2024-25 marketing year started on 1 May 2024 and will end in April 2025. The tighter stocks also imply that South Africa must have early deliveries for the 2025/26 marketing year (which corresponds with the 2024/25 production year) starting on 1 May.

Such early deliveries would ease some market participants’ concerns about the supplies.

How did we get here?

The past 2023/24 maize production season (corresponding with the 2024/25 marketing year) was challenging following a midsummer drought between February and March which resulted in a poor harvest across southern Africa.

Zambia lost half of its maize crop, Zimbabwe lost nearly two-thirds and other countries, such as Malawi and Lesotho, also had significant maize losses.

South Africa was a slight exception because the impact was less severe on the region. The higher fertiliser use and improved biotech seed cultivars we use, among other things, helped a bit. South Africa’s maize harvest fell 23% to 12.7 million tonnes, according to the South African Grain Information Service (Sagis). About 6.0 million tonnes was white maize, and 6.7 million tonnes was yellow maize. The overall harvest of 12.7 million tonnes was slightly above the annual consumption of 11.7 million tonnes.

The maize harvest (12.7 million tonnes) in the 2023/24 production season, combined with the large carryover stock from the previous season (about 2.4 million tonnes), has put South Africa in a relatively comfortable position regarding supplies – at least for a moment.

Of the previous season’s 2.4 million tonnes of carryover stock, about 1.3 million tonnes were white maize and 1.1 million tonnes were yellow.

Combining the white maize carryover stock with the white maize harvest for the season means South Africa had just more than 7 million tonnes of white maize supplies in the 2024/25 marketing year. With local white maize demand set to decline to about 5.2 million tonnes, I view South Africa as better placed to continue to export to neighbouring countries.

There are few white maize producers in the world, the major ones being South Africa and Mexico. With Mexico facing supply shortages due to unfavourable weather, South Africa was left uniquely responsible for serving the southern Africa region.

South Africa had enough supplies for domestic consumption and exports to the region and continued to export. For example, in the week to 6 December 2024, the country exported about 1.4 million tonnes. About 65% of this was white maize and the remainder yellow. The overall maize export forecast for the season is 1.9 million tonnes (down from 3.4 million tonnes in the 2023/24 marketing year because of the midsummer drought).

Zimbabwe has been one of the primary beneficiaries, accounting for 55% (788,000 tonnes) of the 1.4 million tonnes exported in 2024/25. The rest is distributed among southern African countries, and a small volume is sent to Saudi Arabia.

Moreover, while South Africa is likely to remain the net exporter of maize in 2024/25, the coastal regions will import small volumes of yellow maize for animal feed because of price advantage. We have recently seen imports of yellow maize from Argentina and Brazil through Cape Town. South Africa’s 2024/25 maize imports currently stand at 353,000 tonnes.

What now?


We all knew that in the 2024/25 marketing year there was heightened uncertainty in the South African maize market. We cannot close the exports. Any policy that suggests such a move would put the southern African countries that depend on South Africa at immense risk. It would also reduce South African farmers’ incentive to plant more in the following seasons. Remember, the cure for higher prices is higher prices.

There have been calls for the government to intervene to protect consumers from potential food price surges. However, my policy suggestion to government leadership in 2024 was that we do nothing because there could be a disconnect between the domestic white maize prices and the general global maize prices, which are likely to continue softening owing to improved supplies.

I also hoped that the 2024/25 production season (which corresponds with the 2025/26 marketing year) would start early, and we would benefit from the early deliveries. Indeed, farmers were upbeat about the start of the season. South African farmers intend to plant white maize on 1.58 million hectares (up 1% year-over-year) and yellow maize on 1.06 million hectares (down 2% year-over-year).

Overall, maize planting intentions are at 2.64 million hectares (up 0.2% year-over-year), which aligns with the five-year average area. I was at ease, given that we are in the La Niña period, which typically brings above-normal rainfall to southern Africa.

What changed?


What worries me now is that the rains may have arrived late in some areas and sporadically in some regions. This raises doubt about the size of the early maize producer deliveries. Still, these are anecdotal observations, and we have yet to have a better view of the area planted and the extent of delayed plantings.

However, this uncertainty causes me to believe that white maize prices may be elevated for much of the first quarter (even for a few months until we know the size of the potential harvest) and possibly moderate towards the start of the second quarter, when we get the new season harvest.

Another upside risk is the production conditions in Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi and other countries in the region. We have yet to have a clearer view of crop conditions, but these are regions to watch closely.

Consumer perspective


From a consumer perspective, grain-related food product prices will rise in the first part of the year. Of course, there will be delays of between three and four months before we see the farm-level prices translate to the retail level. But there should be moderation as the year progresses.

Substitutes such as rice, wheaten products and potatoes are also available to ease the pressures on households, and these prices have moderated notably in recent months.

Policy recommendation


From a policy perspective, we have limited choices. I remain convinced that we must maintain the current policy path and allow exports.

However, market participants and traders must report trading activity promptly and clearly through SAGIS and other platforms so the market can adjust for grain movements through price.

Any other intervention, such as temporarily limiting exports, would have undesirable long-term consequences. I understand the challenge, but South African households will have to deal with some pain in the near term until we get the new-season crop in the market. DM

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