As climate risks amplify state fragility, will Kenya be better prepared when floods hit again?

Barely two months before mass protests against planned tax increases erupted in Kenya, torrential rains hit east Africa. Brought on by climate change, El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, extreme rain caused flooding, landslides and destruction. More than 300 people died in Kenya and more than 293,000 were displaced. 

People assess state legitimacy based on its ability to manage risks and challenges. Many Kenyans blame the government for failing to adequately prepare for and respond to the floods. Some say they voted for President William Ruto because he promised to safeguard the poor. Instead, his administration evicted people from high-risk riparian areas, and in the process some were killed by bulldozers. 

Climate change amplifies fragility. The May flooding had already compounded socioeconomic problems and fomented discontent when, on 25 June, Ruto passed a finance bill that sparked mass protests and calls for his resignation. The government’s response – deploying the military and disbanding the cabinet – has failed to rebuild public trust. 

To save lives and minimise damage and discontent, Kenya should prepare for the next disaster by implementing and aligning its full range of disaster and climate change frameworks. 

Many criticise the government’s preparedness and response, saying it failed to act promptly or adequately despite early warnings from the Kenya Meteorological Department. In October 2023, Ruto wrongly said Kenya wouldn’t experience El Niño rainfall as predicted. Poor infrastructure and drainage maintenance, and disregard of environmental regulations, contributed to the scale of destruction. 

Residents and civil society organisations had to search for survivors with their bare hands. The government ordered homes along the nation’s waterways to evacuate, forcefully evicted people, and demolished houses in flood-prone informal settlements. It set up 138 camps in 18 counties, and Ruto promised shelter, food, blankets and$76 to each family who lost a home. Although the government set aside Ksh11-billion ($80-million) for the emergency response, many people received insufficient or no support.

Angry citizens say evictions are illegal, cause further harm to people without alternatives, and that the government is merely clearing land for other purposes.

The government declared 10 May a national day of mourning, vowing to tackle climate change. Spokesperson Isaac Mwaura said it was impossible to be fully prepared for disasters, blaming Western countries for causing climate change and making African countries pay the price. 

The medium- and long-term impacts of the flooding will be significant. Tens of thousands of homes and 30,000 acres of farmland, key transport routes, bridges, schools, health and other important infrastructure were destroyed, and 5,000 livestock were killed. The hygiene and sanitation crisis, including elevated risks of water- and vector-borne diseases and malnutrition, is huge. A 30% decline in food production is expected this year – impacting food security, incomes and prices. 

Kenya has policies and plans for disaster risk reduction, disaster response management and climate change adaptation. It also has a National Disaster Management Unit and a climate change action plan and response strategy, among others.

Despite these sound policies, recent and past events show that Kenya has struggled to reduce risks, carry out adaptation measures, and respond adequately when disaster strikes. Responses are hampered by resource and capacity restraints, weak coordination, gaps between county- and national-level measures, and asymmetry between its disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation frameworks.

Coherence between these policies is vital. Disaster risk reduction and management practices have existed for decades, and experience in this field can help plan for climate change adaptation. Both must incorporate forced displacement and voluntary migration.

East Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate impacts, which have been increasingly severe and are forecast to worsen. From 2020 to 2023, more than 50 million people were impacted by the longest drought in 40 years in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia. Torrential rains, high-energy storms, flooding and locusts have further plagued the region. 

In Kenya, the number of natural disasters since 2000 has increased to 2.8 per year, up from 0.5 a year between 1964 and 1999. Severe flooding and landslides displaced 160,000 people in 2019 and 136,000 in 2023. Between 2010 and 2020, climate change caused losses of 3% to 5% of total gross domestic product. Financial costs add to public discontent. 

Climate change, vulnerability and inequality interact in a vicious cycle. Some of the most intense 2024 flooding occurred in high-risk zones where many were displaced from earlier disasters. As of May, Kenya was hosting 774,370 refugees – 670,864 living in camps and 103,506 in urban centres. 

The floods displaced at least 23,000 refugees from the Dadaab and Kakuma camps into temporary shelters, and destroyed infrastructure and services. This further marginalised both refugees and host communities, impeding their economic and social integration. 

Kenya’s government should follow the principle of subsidiarity, which holds that decisions are best taken at the closest possible level to the affected citizens. It should equip local county governments with the capacity and resources to include disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in their planning and responses.

More research is needed on how climate risks diminish state legitimacy and security, and exacerbate the political and economic factors contributing to state fragility in east Africa. 

In 2023, Kenya hosted the inaugural African Climate Summit. In January 2024 it took over the chair of the Platform on Disaster Displacement from the European Union. It also hosts the United Nations’ African headquarters. These leadership roles demand that Kenya improve its preparedness, response and recovery. DM 

Aimée-Noël Mbiyozo, Senior Research Consultant, Migration and James Owino, Consultant, Migration, Institute for Security Studies (ISS).

First published by ISS Today.

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