World champion Boks must embrace favourites tag to reach new level in 2024

This is new territory for Rassie Erasmus’s Springboks.

For the first time, Erasmus will have four Test seasons to assess various options and combinations. The management team will have 40-odd Tests — as well as a few South Africa A fixtures — to implement new structures and strategies that sharpen the team’s attack while amplifying the overall game plan.

This may seem an odd point to make about a team that has won back-to-back World Cups and a series against the British & Irish Lions in a six-year period. South African fans may not care about how the Boks win an unprecedented hat-trick of titles in 2027, only that they lift the Webb Ellis Cup for a third successive time.

But for Erasmus and company, having an additional season or two to prepare for the all-important global tournament could make a world of difference.

While they will continue to strive for results in the lead-up — and they certainly have a lot to prove in the Rugby Championship and Freedom Cup — they will have more room to develop their depth as well as the way they play.

Whisper it, but they could ascend to unprecedented heights, which is some statement given all they’ve achieved in recent seasons.

Era of the underdog

The expectations were lower when Erasmus took charge in 2018, some 18 months before the World Cup in Japan. Somehow the Boks rallied to win the Rugby Championship and World Cup in 2019.

Jacques Nienaber took over as head coach, although Erasmus — as director of rugby, continued to play a prominent role in the management of the national team.

When I sat down with Nienaber in January 2020, he highlighted the team’s priorities for that four-year cycle, namely the 2021 Lions series and the 2023 World Cup. At the same time, he spoke about the quest to win the Rugby Championship and to replace the All Blacks as the top-performing team in the southern hemisphere.

Nienaber viewed the July Tests against Scotland and Georgia as an opportunity to blood younger players and rejig the game plan ahead of the more demanding matches in the Rugby Championship. At that point, the Boks believed that they had the time and leeway to be more ambitious.

Two months later, however, the world was in lockdown. While Covid-19 restrictions eased later that year in other rugby nations, South Africa remained a no-go zone — and the Boks missed out on a season of competition as a result.

Springbok head coach Rassie Erasmus. (Photo: Paul Harding/Getty Images)

The players regrouped in July 2021, some 20 months after the 2019 World Cup final. They battled through a truncated series against Georgia, before employing the same tactics that won them the World Cup in a fiercely contested series against the Lions. It brought them glory in the short term, but it was plain to see that they had not taken their game forward.

Looking back, it’s tempting to think that those challenges brought out the best in the Boks and ultimately contributed to their biggest triumphs.

Rugby history is littered with examples of a South African team prevailing in seemingly hopeless circumstances. No team relishes the underdog tag more.

At times, it’s felt like Erasmus and Nienaber have encouraged the players to believe that the world is against them, in order to unlock the aggression and intensity needed to defeat some of the best teams.

Read more in Daily Maverick: We won! Springboks’ joy as they beat All-Blacks in Rugby World Cup final

Would the Boks have won the 2019 World Cup if they were expected to do so? They weren’t the favourites in 2023 either, as more consistent sides such as Ireland, France and New Zealand travelled to the global tournament as favourites.

In one sense, the lack of respect for South African rugby motivated the Boks to prove a point. In another, the players were unburdened by the pressure of expectation and had more energy to focus on the challenge at hand.

Richie Mo'unga (centre) of New Zealand tackles Damian de Allende of South Africa during the Rugby World Cup 2023 final. (Photo: EPA-EFE/Yoan Valat

If the tag fits, wear it

That won’t be the case in 2024, and in the lead-up to the next World Cup in Australia.

Unless there is another pandemic or lockdown, the Boks will have ample time to prepare for another title defence. There will be no mitigating factors or external excuses for a drop in performance.

The Boks will have to wear the favourites tag, whether they like it or not.

The Boks kick off their season against Wales at Twickenham this Saturday. A number of top players are unavailable for this clash, and Erasmus is using the fixture to blood new players and combinations. In spite of this situation, the Boks should be expected to win.

Only the most biased Irish fan would hand Andy Farrell’s side the tag of favourites ahead of the highly anticipated two-Test series in South Africa this July.

Apart from the Lions, no northern hemisphere team has won a Test series in this part of the world in the professional era. New Zealand were the last individual nation to win a series on these shores, and that was in 1996.

While there will be plenty of talk about Ireland’s standing in world rugby over the next few weeks, it is the Boks who will start the series as favourites — and it will be interesting to see how the hosts embrace that tag.

All Black lock Brodie Retallick is tackled by Damian de Allende and Deon Fourie during the RWC 2023 final in Paris. (Photo: EPA-EFE/Yoan Valat)

The same applies for the next big series against New Zealand — a two-game rubber that could well determine who wins the Rugby Championship.

The All Blacks may be a greater threat under Scott Robertson, who steered the Crusaders to seven consecutive titles between 2017 and 2023, but the fact of the matter is that the Boks will play those two Tests at home. They should expect to win those matches.

Put another way, the All Blacks would back themselves to win a doubleheader against the Boks if those games were staged in New Zealand, and there would be a national outcry in the Land of the Long White Cloud if they failed. That’s simply the level of expectation in a country that hasn’t witnessed too many home defeats over the past few decades.

Daunting yet exciting

Yet, 2024 could be the year where the Boks take their game forward and claim a series of important results.

These are exciting times, when one considers that Erasmus could fulfil his ambition to beat Ireland and win the Rugby Championship, while also developing the next generation of players across a period of 13 Tests.

But just as they have plenty to gain, the Boks have a lot to lose.

The mood will change if they become the first South African team to lose a home series to Ireland, and if they go on to record another mediocre finish in the Rugby Championship.

Those results may compromise plans to develop younger players on the end-of-year tour to the United Kingdom. In that scenario, more veterans will be recalled as Erasmus attempts to finish the season on a high.

Nobody can take the achievements of the past six years away from this group. Given the Boks’ track record of overcoming obstacles and bouncing back from disappointment, one is inclined to believe that a disastrous 2024 season wouldn’t necessarily stop them from winning the 2027 World Cup.

The time could be right to make an enduring statement in a non-World Cup year, though.

New Bok assistant coach Tony Brown has been tasked with growing the team’s attacking threat. (Photo: Waldo Swiegers/Gallo Images)

The Boks have the coaches — while they’ve lost Nienaber, they’ve welcomed attacking guru Tony Brown, among others, to the ranks — as well as a clutch of serial winners who have more to give in the green and gold. They have a host of youngsters pushing for starting places, and essentially forcing the elder statesmen to adapt and evolve.

There may be a few teething problems as the new structures bed in, and we shouldn’t expect perfection.

But don’t be surprised if Erasmus’ charges finish the 2024 Test season having ticked most, if not all, of the major boxes. DM