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Zelensky rules out halt to fighting as pressure on Kyiv grows; White House supports seizing frozen Russian assets

Zelensky rules out halt to fighting as pressure on Kyiv grows; White House supports seizing frozen Russian assets
National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby speaks during a news briefing at the White House on 4 January 2024 in Washington, DC. During the briefing, Kirby spoke about the U.S. government's belief that Russia was supplied with North Korean ballistic missiles that were used to strike Ukraine. (Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Bloomberg
By Bloomberg
11 Jan 2024
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has ruled out any pause in fighting as his Estonian counterpart said peace proposals to end the nearly two-year Russian invasion were being floated ‘behind the curtains’.

President Joe Biden’s administration is backing legislation that would let it seize some of $300-billion in frozen Russian assets to help pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine, a shift as the White House seeks to rally support in Congress to further fund the war against Vladimir Putin’s forces.

North Korea was looking to step up its military cooperation with Russia by sending Moscow new types of tactical guided missiles, while Pyongyang may soon conduct fresh tests of its missiles designed to deliver nuclear strikes, South Korea’s defence minister said.

The US wants Ukraine to sharpen its plan for fighting Russia’s invasion as the war heads into its third year and is expected to raise the issue with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Davos next week.

Zelensky Estonian President Alar Karis (right) and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky review the guard of honour during their meeting in Tallinn, Estonia, on 11 January 2024. Zelensky was on a tour of the Baltic countries. (Photo: EPA-EFE / Presidential Press Service)


‘There will be no pauses in fighting,’ says Zelensky


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ruled out any pause in fighting as his Estonian counterpart said peace proposals to end the nearly two-year Russian invasion were being floated “behind the curtains”.

“There will definitely be no pauses for the benefit of Russia,” Zelensky told reporters in Tallinn on Thursday during a tour of the Baltic region. He spoke alongside Estonian President Alar Karis, who said a number of countries and “interest groups” were putting pressure on Kyiv to start talks with the Kremlin. 

Karis reiterated Estonia’s position that the war must end with Ukraine’s victory. The comments came as the US seeks to urge Ukraine to sharpen its plan for pressing back Russian forces.  

Read More: US set to push Zelensky at Davos for clearer war plan

Zelensky reinforced his message that a halt to fighting would give Russia the opportunity to replenish troops and military stockpiles, enabling it to strike with greater force.

The Ukrainian president is making a tour of Nato’s Baltic states — Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia — which are among the staunchest supporters of Ukraine in its fight against Russia.  

White House throws support behind seizing frozen Russian assets


President Joe Biden’s administration is backing legislation that would let it seize some of $300-billion in frozen Russian assets to help pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine, a shift as the White House seeks to rally support in Congress to further fund the war against Vladimir Putin’s forces.

The administration welcomes “in principle” a Bill that would allow it to confiscate the funds, according to a November memo from the National Security Council (NSC) to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

“The Bill would provide the authority needed for the executive branch to seize Russian sovereign assets for the benefit of Ukraine,” the NSC said in the memo, one of three such communications seen by Bloomberg News. 

Zelensky Estonian President Alar Karis (right) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during their meeting in Tallinn, Estonia, on 11 January 2024. Zelensky has visited Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia where he met top officials to discuss support for Ukraine amid the Russian invasion as well as Ukrainian 'integration into the EU and Nato' and security, among other topics. (Photo: EPA-EFE / Raigo Pajula / Estonian Presidential Office)



Biden’s support for the move emerges as Republicans in Congress have blocked more than $60-billion in funding for Ukraine, partly over concerns that Washington is carrying too much of the financial burden as Kyiv’s counteroffensive stalls. 

The White House is seeking to balance that with competing worries that the move could taint the reputation of the US financial system and spark a flight from the dollar. The administration also wants to align the move with Group of Seven allies, particularly in Europe, where about $200-billion of the frozen Russian assets are held and where support for seizure, particularly unilaterally, has been tepid.  

North Korea set to send new class of missiles to Russia, says Seoul 


North Korea is looking to step up its military cooperation with Russia by sending Moscow new types of tactical guided missiles, while Pyongyang may soon conduct fresh tests of its missiles designed to deliver nuclear strikes, South Korea’s defence minister said.

Kim Jong-un’s regime appears to be planning for a trial of atmospheric reentry of a warhead designed to be carried by an intercontinental ballistic missile to the US mainland, Shin Wonsik said in an exclusive interview with Yonhap News published on Thursday. This would mean firing a long-range rocket a distance of several thousand kilometres, he said.

The cooperation outlined by Shin would mark a new phase of Kim’s assistance for Putin in his war on Ukraine, which could help the Kremlin continue its grinding bombardment of its neighbour.  

By sending more weapons of greater sophistication, Kim is probably receiving substantial aid that keeps his sanctions-hit economy afloat as well as technology from Russia that increases the security threat North Korea poses to the US and its allies in the region — South Korea and Japan, weapons experts have said.

“North Korea said it will deploy [close-range ballistic missiles] with frontline troops. Given the recent arms trade, North Korea could sell them to Russia,” Shin told Yonhap.

Read more: Ghost ships at reawakened North Korea port put Ukraine in peril

North Korea first tested CRBMs in April 2022 with an estimated range of about 100-180 kilometres, Shin said. Visits by the North Korean leader to munitions factories reported by his state media this week could be linked to the arms trade with Russia, the defence minister added.

More than a year ago, the US accused North Korea of supplying munitions to Russia that are interoperable with the Soviet-era weaponry it has deployed in Ukraine. Since then, the cooperation has grown to include short-range ballistic missiles, the US said last week. Moscow and Pyongyang have repeatedly denied the accusations.

Shin added the flow of munitions may have reached more than two million rounds. North Korea is estimated to have provided around 5,000 containers of weapons to Russia as of the end of December that could hold some 2.3 million rounds of 152mm shells, Yonhap reported the minister as saying.  

Ukrainian soldiers on armoured personnel carriers prepare to attack the positions of the Russian army in Lyman district, Ukraine, on 9 January 2024. Ukraine's 49th Infantry Battalion 'Karpatska Sich' on the Kremina frontline is holding back the Russians on the Lyman front. Ukraine's ammunition stocks are dwindling as the Russian army saturates its anti-aircraft defence, a new strategy from Moscow at a time when Kyiv is worried about the erosion of Western military support. (Photo: Kostiantyn Liberov / Libkos / Getty Images)


US set to push Zelensky at Davos for clearer war plan


The US wants Ukraine to sharpen its plan for fighting Russia’s invasion as the war heads into its third year and is expected to raise the issue with Zelensky in Davos next week.

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is likely to bring up the topic with the Ukrainian leader on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum and US officials will continue to push the point in the coming weeks, according to people familiar with the planning who asked not to be identified to discuss matters that aren’t public.

Washington’s effort is the latest sign of friction between Ukraine and its most important ally. More than $110-billion in European and US aid for Kyiv remains held up and Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year — heavily backed by US and European arms and training — failed to deliver a major breakthrough. 

Officials in Washington are concerned differences between Zelensky and his army chief, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, are slowing efforts to crystallise a new strategy, the people said.  

Black Sea mine-hunt deal set to secure Ukraine exports path


Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria joined forces to hunt mines in the Black Sea, a move aimed at improving shipping safety and shoring up vital Ukrainian grain exports to secure funding. 

The Istanbul-led initiative is designed to defuse mines drifting into specific areas of the Black Sea as a result of Russia’s near two-year invasion of Ukraine. A secondary motive is to exclude other Nato members from the security effort, including the US and UK, to avoid escalating tensions in the region.

Read more in Daily Maverick: War in Ukraine

Russia and Ukraine are both major producers of grain, and the war has increasingly threatened the safe passage of shipments. Ukraine nevertheless transported 15 million tonnes of cargo via its Black Sea corridor since mid-September, mainly foodstuffs, as flagging financial aid from allies makes it even more crucial for the country to ensure its commodities reach global markets. Strong shipments are also needed to clear last year’s larger-than-expected harvest.

A memorandum of understanding was signed on Thursday in Istanbul, the first major joint action of Black Sea nations since Putin sent forces into Ukraine in February 2022.  

Russia’s 2023 oil and gas revenue curbed by sanctions, cheaper crude


Russia’s budget deficit widened more than expected last year, as oil and gas revenues fell by almost a quarter and the Kremlin increased spending amid its war in Ukraine. 

The fiscal gap reached 3.2 trillion roubles ($36.1-billion), or 1.9% of gross domestic product, Finance Ministry data shows. That’s 300 billion roubles higher than both the budget target and the late-December estimate of Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

The deficit widened as spending exceeded projections by 11%. Taxes from oil and gas — a key source of funding for the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine — slumped 24% from a year ago, but still accounted for almost a third of total budget revenue last year, according to Finance Ministry figures. 

National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby speaks during a news briefing at the White House in Washington, DC, on 4 January 2024. He spoke about the US government's belief that Russia had been supplied with North Korean ballistic missiles that were used to strike Ukraine. (Photo: Anna Moneymaker / Getty Images)



The flow of petrodollars ebbed as the price of Russian barrels fell amid a decline in the global crude market and tighter Western energy sanctions. A sharp drop in Russia’s pipeline gas exports and generous state subsidies given to the nation’s oil industry accentuated the decline in net revenue, the official figures show.

Lower state income from oil and gas puts extra pressure on the budget just as Russia plans a nearly 70% increase in military spending in 2024 as the war in Ukraine nears its third year. Social expenditures will also be higher as President Vladimir Putin prepares to run for a fifth term in March elections.  

Ukraine adds sandwich chain Subway to list of ‘war sponsors’


Ukraine’s anti-corruption watchdog placed the US sandwich chain Subway on its list of “war sponsors”, saying the company’s more than 500 restaurants operating in Russia help fuel the nation’s economy as it continues its war with Kyiv. 

The Ukrainian National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP) added Subway to a list of companies named by Ukraine as doing business in Russia, including PepsiCo, Philip Morris International and Procter & Gamble, the agency said in a statement.  

Subway promotes activities through sanctioned Russian social networks and makes deliveries through Yandex, Russia’s leading search engine, the NACP said. Yandex, registered in the Netherlands, has come under intense pressure both in Russia and abroad over its Russian activities. 

“Since the full-scale invasion, Subway has not reported any reduction in its operations in Russia,” the Ukrainian agency said, adding that the company still collects royalty payments from its business in Russia. Subway didn’t respond to a query seeking comment about the Ukrainian list. DM

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