SA consumer inflation ticks up in April but remains below 3.0%

South Africa’s consumer price index (CPI) ticked up to 2.8% year-on-year in April from 2.7% in March, with housing and utilities, and food and non-alcoholic drinks the main drivers behind the acceleration.

Among other things, fuel inflation is seen remaining subdued in the coming months, but the inflation-linked adjustment to the fuel levy announced in Wednesday’s Budget may change the outlook slightly on that front. 

But inflation is benign and one of the few bright spots on the economic landscape.

“South Africa’s 2.8% year-on-year inflation rate for April is slightly higher than expected, but it is no cause for concern,” Jacques Nel, Head: Africa Macro at Oxford Economics Africa, said in a note on the data. 

Pointedly, CPI remains below the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’S) 3% to 6% target range and is tame by historical standards.

That does not mean that the bank will pull the trigger on rates when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets on the issue next week. 

The SARB is taking a cautious approach against the backdrop of unprecedented levels of uncertainty in the global economy triggered by US President Donald Trump’s trade wars and ham-fisted tariff policies. 

But it will see the inflation data as vindication of its policies and supportive of its push to lower the inflation target to 3.0%. 

Still, meat eaters are feeling the bite. 

“Inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose to 4.0%, the highest annual rate since September 2024 (4.6%). The monthly change for the category was 1.3%, the largest increase since October 2023 when the rate was 1.5%,” Stats SA said in a statement.